All Triggers

AI capex shock is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.30, status rising. Oracle Investor Relations (2026-06-10) reports FY2026 free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion and $43 billion in debt financing, extending capex-to-cash-flow compression. Section 7.4 frames the evidence as scenario-output; no threshold has been crossed. The position de-loads if a top-7 hyperscaler signals a qualifying capex reduction or funding strain reverses.

Iran/Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active. Reuters (2026-06-13) reports Brent settled at $87.33/barrel and Iran FM Araqchi confirmed the MOU had not yet been signed. The framework reads this as Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 for a chokepoint supply shock. De-load requires restored Hormuz traffic, durable oil normalization, and a ceasefire sustained over six months per section 13.

Rates and fiscal stress is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.12, status watching. BLS Employment Situation Release (2026-06-05) reported payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May and unemployment was unchanged at 4.3 percent. The framework reads this as Fed-reaction and long-end Treasury monitoring. De-load would require calmer inflation, policy, volatility, and auction stress conditions.

Taiwan is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.09, status quiet. ANI News (2026-06-13) reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties with 4 entering the southwestern ADIZ and 8 PLAN vessels around Taiwan. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (2026-06-11) recorded 11 sorties with 9 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. The position raises on any kinetic cross-strait incident and de-loads on sustained lower PLA activity.

Basis trade is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.12, status quiet. sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve Bank of New York data) (2026-05-26) reports SOFR at 3.55% as of May 22, 2026; the framework's threshold requires SOFR-IORB to exceed 25 bps. The position de-loads when the spread falls persistently short of that threshold under stable money-market conditions.

Private credit dislocation is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.25, status active. Reuters (2026-06-05) reports issuance fell to $44.76 billion in the three months ended May 2026, while BCRED and Cliffwater capped withdrawals at 5% after 10% and 17% requests. The framework treats this as Layer A scenario output under section 7.4. De-load requires redemption normalization, stable BDC outlooks, and sustained improvement in stress metrics.

Yen carry is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.29, status watching; threshold is USD/JPY below 140 in under 5 sessions. TradingEconomics (2026-07-14) shows USD/JPY at 162.147, up 8.99 percent over 12 months, far above threshold. Bloomberg (2026-07-06) reports nearly 138,000 net short yen contracts as of June 30, 2026, the most bearish positioning since 2007. The framework de-loads when spot stabilizes and carry stress recedes per sections 13 and 13.6.

AI cyber is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.18, status quiet. Nextgov/FCW (2026-07-13) reports that a vulnerability can become a working exploit within hours of disclosure, outpacing human-speed defense. The framework treats this as scenario output under section 7.4, not a probability claim. The position remains quiet absent a confirmed systemic outage or cross-firm financial transmission; section 13 governs escalation.

Stablecoin de-peg is Tier 3, prior 0.05, status quiet. CoinGecko on 2026-06-08 showed tether usd 0.999263 and USDC 0.999752. DefiLlama on 2026-06-08 showed Tether USDT price 0.9992537150899073 and USD Coin USDC price 0.999694402830099. The cited prints keep the configuration in quiet status.