Crash Configuration · assessment 14 July 2026
CRASH CONFIGURATION INDEX
click to flip ↺
63/ 100⚠ Severe
Near December 1999 (today 63 vs 64) — the dot-com peak; the bubble broke within months.
Crash Configuration Index
63/ 100⚠ Severe
Composition · tier contribution
Motion
Δ 90 days——
Δ year—unavailable
State · all inputs
Active2 of 14
Watching4 of 14
Quiet8 of 14contained
Historical anchors
192971valuation peak
199964dot-com peak
200172post dot-com
200887GFC peak
20175calm expansion
202091COVID peak
202228elevated, no trigger
Qualitative risk path · 24-mo horizon
Stress pathdirectionalconfiguration summary, not crash probabilities
Confirmationevidencewatch triggers and loops
Validation
Consensus2 / 2 LLMwithin tol.
Assessed14 July 2026 at 16:24 UTCstale
About this index
Crash Configuration Index
A composite stress index, scored 0–100. It measures how loaded the current market configuration is — scenario outputs are directional stress estimates, not crash probabilities.
9 discrete triggers are weighted by blast radius (Tier 1 systemic at 3×, Tier 2 contagion at 2×, Tier 3 contained at 1×), then modulated by 5 slow-moving amplifiers.
Historical anchors place today against past episodes: 1999 = 64 (the only previous CAPE ≥ 40 regime), 2008 = 87, 2020 = 91. Read the dial as “where the configuration sits today,” never as “X% chance of a crash.”
Routine changes require 2-of-3 within tolerance; high-stakes changes require 3-of-4 within tolerance. The methodology is published and every accepted change is recorded in the forecast log.
click anywhere to return ↺