Crash Configuration · 29 June 2026

trigger states: 2 active · 3 watching · 1 amplifier elevated · LLM consensus 2 / 2
CRASH CONFIGURATION INDEX click to flip ↺
60 DANGER → 0 20 40 70 80 90 100 1999 64 2008 87 2020 91 CRASH CONFIGURATION
61/ 100⚠ Severe
Near December 1999 (today 61 vs 64) — the dot-com peak; the bubble broke within months.

Crash Configuration Index

61/ 100⚠ Severe
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Composition · tier contribution

Tier 1 · 3×66%
Tier 2 · 2×29%
Tier 3 · 1×5%

Motion

Δ 90 days——
Δ year—unavailable

State · all inputs

Active2 of 14
Watching4 of 14
Quiet8 of 14contained

Historical anchors

192971valuation peak
199964dot-com peak
200172post dot-com
200887GFC peak
20175calm expansion
202091COVID peak
202228elevated, no trigger

Qualitative risk path · 24-mo horizon

Stress pathdirectionalconfiguration summary, not crash probabilities
Confirmationevidencewatch triggers and loops

Validation

Consensus2 / 2 LLMwithin tol.
Updated15:57 UTClive
Methodology →
About this index

Crash Configuration Index

A composite stress index, scored 0–100. It measures how loaded the current market configuration is — scenario outputs are directional stress estimates, not crash probabilities.

Eight discrete triggers are weighted by blast radius (Tier 1 systemic at 3×, Tier 2 contagion at 2×, Tier 3 contained at 1×), then modulated by five slow-moving amplifiers (valuation, concentration, CRE wall, IG supply, stablecoin backstop).

Historical anchors place today against past episodes: 1999 = 64 (the only previous CAPE ≥ 40 regime), 2008 = 87, 2020 = 91. Read the dial as “where the configuration sits today,” never as “X% chance of a crash.”

Every change is cross-validated by two independent LLM families (Claude and GPT-5). The methodology is published; the forecast log is auditable.

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Loaded in the background.

5 amplifiers · slow-moving state · 1 of 5 elevated
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2 AI families · 10 sources · full log → · all triggers → · all amplifiers →