Methodology

The Crash Configuration Index is a composite stress index — not a probability, not a forecast. Eight discrete triggers are weighted by blast radius (Tier 1 ×3, Tier 2 ×2, Tier 3 ×1) and modulated by five amplifiers. Historical anchors place today against past episodes.

Every probability change is cross-validated by three independent LLM families (Claude, Gemini, GPT). The published number requires at least two of three families to agree within a stated tolerance band. All prior changes are logged in the auditable forecast log.

Tier 1 (systemic, 3×): Triggers whose activation directly threatens the US financial system — Oil shock, AI capex collapse, dollar weaponization.
Tier 2 (contagion, 2×): Triggers that propagate through financial channels — Yen carry unwind, Private credit dislocation, Treasury basis trade.
Tier 3 (contained, 1×): Triggers with bounded blast radius — Stablecoin run, CRE wave.

Full methodology specification: Working paper (PDF) →