Tier 2 · 2× Quiet

Treasury basis trade

Basis trade is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.12, status quiet. sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve Bank of New York data) (2026-05-26) reports SOFR at 3.55% as of May 22, 2026; the framework's threshold requires SOFR-IORB to exceed 25 bps. The position de-loads when the spread falls persistently short of that threshold under stable money-market conditions.

Current probability
12%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
SOFR-IORB > 25 bps
Tier weight
P range
0–30%
Last update
20:41 UTC
Current prob
12%
current
Status
Quiet
·
Tier
Tier 2
weight 2×
P min
0%
floor
P max
30%
ceiling
Updated
20:41 UTC
live
Threshold definition

SOFR-IORB > 25 bps

Basis trade is a Tier 2 trigger at prior 0.12, status quiet. sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve Bank of New York data) (2026-05-26) reports SOFR at 3.55% as of May 22, 2026; the framework's threshold requires SOFR-IORB to exceed 25 bps. The position de-loads when the spread falls persistently short of that threshold under stable money-market conditions.

Recent evidence