Tier 1 · 3× Rising

AI capex shock

AI capex is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.30, status rising. Bloomberg (2026-05-23) reports Wall Street banks are trading credit derivatives to hedge growing hyperscaler AI debt exposure. RCRTech (2026-05-18) reports Moody's marked up its 2026 hyperscaler capex estimate to $785 billion from approximately $700 billion in March 2026. The position de-loads on a confirmed material cut from any top-7 hyperscaler.

Current probability
30%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
>25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler
Tier weight
P range
0–50%
Last update
09:43 UTC
Current prob
30%
current
Status
Rising
·
Tier
Tier 1
weight 3×
P min
0%
floor
P max
50%
ceiling
Updated
09:43 UTC
live
Threshold definition

>25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler

AI capex is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.30, status rising. Bloomberg (2026-05-23) reports Wall Street banks are trading credit derivatives to hedge growing hyperscaler AI debt exposure. RCRTech (2026-05-18) reports Moody's marked up its 2026 hyperscaler capex estimate to $785 billion from approximately $700 billion in March 2026. The position de-loads on a confirmed material cut from any top-7 hyperscaler.

Recent evidence