Taiwan is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.09, status quiet; threshold is any kinetic cross-strait incident. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (2026-05-26) logged 24 out of 29 PLA sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The framework de-loads this position when verified cessation of median-line crossings and restored bilateral defense engagement remove the basis for cross-strait kinetic risk (paper section 13).
Taiwan is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.09, status quiet; threshold is any kinetic cross-strait incident. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (2026-05-26) logged 24 out of 29 PLA sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The framework de-loads this position when verified cessation of median-line crossings and restored bilateral defense engagement remove the basis for cross-strait kinetic risk (paper section 13).
Taiwan MND May 26 report (period 6am May 25 to 6am May 26 UTC+8): 29 PLA aircraft sorties and 7 PLAN ships plus 1 official ship detected around Taiwan; 24 of 29 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ -- the highest single-day sortie count in the current pack period, on a non-anniversary day. ROC Armed Forces deployed CAP aircraft, Navy ships, and coastal missile systems in response; Taiwan MND issued no rehearsal-of-assault designation.
29 sorties of PLA aircraft, 7 PLAN ships and 1 official ship operating around Taiwan. 24 out of 29 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ.
South China Morning Post (Grade B) reports China's Defense Minister Dong Jun is expected to skip the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore for the second consecutive year, with Beijing dispatching a PLA National Defense University delegation instead of ministerial representation; indicates continued Beijing disengagement from US-led multilateral defense dialogue circuits.
Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun is set to skip the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore for the second year in a row, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The Polymarket 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027' market shows 9% Yes probability on $1,812,783 total trading volume as of May 26, 2026 (stable from the May 24 reading of 9% Yes on $1,810,516 volume); resolves Yes on kinetic engagement through December 31, 2026. Grade C anchor only; not used as a probability estimate.
9% chance of Yes; market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027'; resolution date December 31, 2026; total volume $1,812,783; snapshot May 26, 2026.
Taipei Times May 26, 2026 (Grade B): Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 (May 29-31, Singapore) will focus on Taiwan tensions, the Iran war, and US regional commitment; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is the central figure amid ongoing Iran conflict and questions about US regional commitment. China's Defense Minister Dong Jun's participation remains unconfirmed, consistent with the prior-year pattern of PRC disengagement from Western-led multilateral defense fora. Analysts flag continued uncertainty around US policy predictability in Asia.
There will likely be some continued anxiety over the unpredictability and volatility of US policy.
Taiwan MND May 25 report (period 6am May 24 to 6am May 25 UTC+8): 9 PLA aircraft sorties and 7 PLAN ships plus 1 official ship detected around Taiwan; 8 of 9 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern and eastern ADIZ -- a re-spike from the prior-day step-down but below the May 20 anniversary peak. ROC Armed Forces deployed CAP aircraft, Navy ships, and coastal missile systems in response; Taiwan MND issued no rehearsal-of-assault designation.
9 sorties of PLA aircraft, 7 PLAN ships and 1 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 8 out of 9 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern and eastern ADIZ.
South China Morning Post (Grade B) reports Taiwan remains cautiously optimistic about the $14B US arms sale despite Acting SecNav Hung Cao's Senate testimony that the sale is on ice; Cao framed the pause as munitions conservation for Operation Epic Fury (Iran), while Trump separately described it as a negotiating chip with China, introducing dual-rationale ambiguity about US deterrence commitment to Taiwan.
We're just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary -- Hung Cao, Acting Secretary of the US Navy, Senate hearing.
Taiwan MND May 24 report (period 6am May 23 to 6am May 24 UTC+8): 4 PLA aircraft sorties and 6 PLAN vessels detected around Taiwan; 3 of 4 sorties crossed the median line into southwestern and southeastern ADIZ -- step-down from the May 23 secondary spike of 16 sorties. Primary source is MND official X post (@MoNDefense, tweet ID 2058352285130903606); primary MND GlobalSecurity.org page for May 24 unreachable (HTTP 404); sourced via Tribune India (ANI syndication), which quotes the MND tweet verbatim. No rehearsal-of-assault designation issued.
4 sorties of PLA aircraft and 6 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 3 out of 4 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's southwestern and southeastern part ADIZ.
The Polymarket 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027' market shows 9% Yes probability on $1,810,516.72 total trading volume as of May 24, 2026 (last updated 2026-05-24T09:12:35Z); up from 8% Yes on May 22. Resolves Yes on kinetic engagement (missile strike, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or ship ramming with significant damage) through December 31, 2026. Grade C anchor only; not used as a probability estimate.
9% chance of Yes; market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027'; resolution date December 31, 2026; total volume $1,810,516.72; last updated 2026-05-24T09:12:35Z; snapshot May 24, 2026.
Taiwan MND May 23 report (period 6am May 22 to 6am May 23 UTC+8): 16 PLA aircraft sorties and 8 PLAN ships detected around Taiwan; 13 of 16 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ -- a secondary re-spike interrupting the post-anniversary step-down of 7 sorties (May 21) and 6 sorties (May 22). ROC Armed Forces deployed CAP aircraft, Navy ships, and coastal missile systems in response; Taiwan MND issued no rehearsal-of-assault designation.
16 sorties of PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN ships operating around Taiwan were detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 13 out of 16 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ.
Taiwan National Security Council Secretary General Joseph Wu disclosed on May 23, 2026 via X post (sourced via Fox News, Grade C publisher) that PRC ISR/intel shows over 100 vessels deployed around the 1st Island Chain in the days following the Trump-Xi Beijing summit; this encompasses PLAN, coast guard, and maritime militia -- broader in scope than the daily MND PLAN ship count; no kinetic incident or rehearsal-of-assault designation was reported.
Our ISR/intel shows that the PRC has deployed over 100 vessels around the 1st Island Chain over the past few days, so soon after the Beijing summit.