Taiwan

Polymarket 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027' market priced at 5% YES with $2,852,026 volume as of July 13, 2026 snapshot -- down from 10% YES in the June 13 pack; resolves December 31, 2026; defined as missile strikes, artillery, or direct exchange of gunfire between Chinese and Taiwanese forces.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027: 5% YES, $2,852,026 volume; defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement; resolves December 31, 2026.

AEI update through July 10: PLA SLBM test likely JL-2 per Taiwan NSC Secretary-General Wu, fired from Bohai Sea or South China Sea per maritime safety administration notices, landed between Tuvalu and Gilbert Islands of Kiribati; China Coast Guard rotated east-Taiwan ships with AIS disabled after roughly 24 hours; Joint Sea-2026 Russia-China exercises July 6-13 near Qingdao; Wang Gang promoted to PLAAF Commander.

Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu indicated the missile 'was likely a JL-2' with 8,000-kilometer range capability; the missile landed between Tuvalu and the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati after launch from the Bohai Sea or South China Sea per maritime safety administration notices.

Taiwan MND July 7, 2026 daily report: 4 PLA aircraft sorties, 9 PLAN ships detected; 3 of 4 sorties crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ; ROC Armed Forces responded with CAP aircraft, Navy ships, and coastal missile systems.

4 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN ships operating around Taiwan were detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 3 out of 4 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ.

CSIS assessed the July 2026 PLA SLBM test as the first public demonstration of China's sea-based nuclear strike capability from a submarine in the Indo-Pacific; fired from the South China Sea in a pattern that mirrored a real missile attack; coincided with start of Joint Sea-2026 Russia-China exercises.

Testing ballistic missiles in international waters without following the proper protocols poses risks to the international community. This week's missile launch, which came from the SCS, a protected bastion for Chinese ballistic missile submarines, mirrored a real missile attack in several ways.

Army Recognition reported PLA launched an SLBM from a Type 094 Jin-class submarine with a dummy warhead into designated Pacific waters; possibly a JL-3; first publicly acknowledged Chinese SLBM test into the Pacific demonstrating sea-based nuclear deterrence complementing silo-based ICBMs and road-mobile launchers.

Sea-based deterrence now complements silo-based ICBMs, road-mobile launchers and strategic bombers, while early warning satellites and upgraded nuclear command-and-control networks improve China's ability to detect incoming missile attacks.

AEI biweekly update: June 2026 saw 134 aerial ADIZ incursions (reduced from post-inauguration baseline); PRC Fujian carrier transited Taiwan Strait June 23 (third crossing since November 2025 commissioning); China Coast Guard maintained continuous patrol east of Taiwan from June 1 with at least two ships; ISW-CDOT assessed PLA may have reduced sorties for maintenance.

The PLA conducted 134 aerial incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) during June 2026; the PRC's Fujian aircraft carrier transited the Taiwan Strait on June 23, its third strait crossing since commissioning in November 2025.

Taiwan MND June 13, 2026 daily report: 6 PLA aircraft sorties detected with 4 entering the southwestern ADIZ; 8 PLAN vessels and 2 official ships tracked in surrounding waters. The prior day (June 12) recorded 14 PLA aircraft sorties and 9 PLAN vessels, with 13 sorties crossing the median line into the northern and southwestern ADIZ.

Taiwan's MND reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties on June 13, with 4 out of 6 entering the southwestern ADIZ, along with 8 PLAN vessels and 2 official ships; the previous day saw 14 sorties and 9 PLAN vessels with 13 crossing the median line.

Polymarket market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027' (defined as missile strikes, artillery, or direct exchange of gunfire between Chinese and Taiwanese forces; resolves December 31, 2026) priced at 10% YES with $1,892,423 trading volume as of June 13, 2026 snapshot. Companion 'invasion before 2027' market priced at 6% YES with $34.5M volume.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027: 10% YES, $1,892,423 volume; defined as missile strikes, artillery, or exchange of gunfire between Chinese and Taiwanese forces; resolves December 31, 2026.

Taiwan MND reported 11 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN ships, and 3 official ships around Taiwan in the period ending 6 a.m. Jun. 11, with 9 out of 11 sorties crossing the Taiwan Strait median line into northern and southwestern ADIZ. This is fresh Grade A daily monitoring evidence, but it remains below a kinetic cross-strait incident.

6 a.m. Jun 10 (Wed.) to 6 a.m. Jun 11 (Thu.) (UTC+8). 11 sorties of PLA aircraft, 6 PLAN ships and 3 official ships operating around Taiwan were detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 9 out of 11 sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's northern and southwestern ADIZ.

Reuters reported that Taiwan's coast guard said its maritime sovereignty cannot be violated after China ended a patrol east of Taiwan. The report adds fresh maritime-pressure context, including Chinese state media saying the patrol inspected 198 passing vessels and rectified violations involving three ships, but it does not describe kinetic contact.

Late on Wednesday, Chinese state media said the patrol had ended, after it had inspected 198 passing vessels and rectified violations involving three ships, carried out a hydrographic survey and patrolled areas where undersea cables are located. Taiwan's coast guard said Beijing has no jurisdiction in those waters and that whenever Chinese ships appear, Taiwan's own vessels will forcefully drive them away, and maintain the freedom and safety of navigation.