Tier 1 · 3× Active

Oil & Iran / Hormuz

Oil & Iran / Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active, CCI 64 (severe). Fortune (2026-05-26) reports Brent at $100.20 per barrel; Bloomberg (2026-05-26) confirms US and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz overnight even as both sides tout progress toward a deal. Section 13.6 de-load requires Hormuz transit resumption and sustained price normalization below the price threshold.

Current probability
45%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
Brent > $95 sustained >= 30 trading days, OR kinetic Hormuz incident
Tier weight
P range
0–45%
Last update
02:14 UTC
Current prob
45%
current
Status
Active
·
Tier
Tier 1
weight 3×
P min
0%
floor
P max
45%
ceiling
Updated
02:14 UTC
live
Threshold definition

Brent > $95 sustained >= 30 trading days, OR kinetic Hormuz incident

Oil & Iran / Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active, CCI 64 (severe). Fortune (2026-05-26) reports Brent at $100.20 per barrel; Bloomberg (2026-05-26) confirms US and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz overnight even as both sides tout progress toward a deal. Section 13.6 de-load requires Hormuz transit resumption and sustained price normalization below the price threshold.

Recent evidence