Iran/Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active. Reuters (2026-06-13) reports Brent settled at $87.33/barrel and Iran FM Araqchi confirmed the MOU had not yet been signed. The framework reads this as Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 for a chokepoint supply shock. De-load requires restored Hormuz traffic, durable oil normalization, and a ceasefire sustained over six months per section 13.
Iran/Hormuz is a Tier 1 trigger at prior 0.45, status active. Reuters (2026-06-13) reports Brent settled at $87.33/barrel and Iran FM Araqchi confirmed the MOU had not yet been signed. The framework reads this as Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 for a chokepoint supply shock. De-load requires restored Hormuz traffic, durable oil normalization, and a ceasefire sustained over six months per section 13.
Fortune confirms Brent crude at $78.31 per barrel as of 6:00 AM ET on July 13, down from $88.60 one month prior and up from $71.07 one year ago, reflecting the ceasefire-driven price decline followed by a partial rebound as hostilities resumed.
As of 6 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil sold for $78.31 per barrel (using Brent as the benchmark). One month prior: $88.60/bbl; one year ago: $71.07/bbl.
Al Jazeera (unregistered publisher, Grade C, non-load-bearing for breadth floor) reports Brent rose more than 4 percent to $78.82 per barrel on July 13 as US and Iran resumed attacks, with only six vessels crossing in a 12-hour period vs. 18-22 daily transits earlier in July.
Brent crude rose more than 4 percent, reaching $78.82 per barrel for September delivery -- the highest level since June 22. Maritime traffic through this critical waterway has plummeted dramatically, with only six vessels crossing during a 12-hour period compared to the typical 18-22 daily transits earlier in July.
Al Jazeera (unregistered, Grade C, non-load-bearing) reports IRGC formally declared Hormuz closed July 11, with Iran's Port and Shipping Organization stating passage is currently not possible due to US military movements.
The IRGC naval forces announced formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Port and Shipping Organization stated 'passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently not possible,' blaming 'recent illegal movements of the United States military forces.'
IEA July 2026 OMR confirms Gulf oil exports surged 6.5 mb/d in June to 16.1 mb/d following the short-lived June 17 ceasefire, but remain well below the 24 mb/d pre-war average; North Sea Dated crude reached around $68/bbl in early July then rebounded to around $77/bbl after the ceasefire was breached on July 7-8. Global supply rose 4.1 mb/d in June to 98.8 mb/d but is 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels.
Total Gulf oil exports, including volumes bypassing the Strait, surged by 6.5 mb/d in June, to 16.1 mb/d, remaining well below the 24 mb/d average before the war started. North Sea Dated crude: around $68/bbl in early July, rising to around $77/bbl after the ceasefire was breached on 7-8 July. Global oil supply rose 4.1 mb/d in June to 98.8 mb/d but is 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels.
Bloomberg reports Hormuz tanker transits effectively halted as of July 9, with no large vessel crossing the US-coordinated route while broadcasting location since July 7 and the Oman-hugging lane also grinding to a halt. Bloomberg unreachable (403); headline and quote confirmed via search snippet.
No large vessel has crossed the strait via the US-coordinated route while broadcasting their location since Tuesday, with traceable crossings via the Oman-hugging lane 'effectively grinding to a halt.'
ABC News (unregistered, Grade C, non-load-bearing) documents the 60-day ceasefire agreement signed June 17, 2026 collapsed on July 9 after Iran attacked commercial vessels and the US struck 90 Iranian military targets; Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 9.
A 60-day ceasefire agreement signed June 17, 2026, collapsed when the U.S. conducted a second round of strikes hitting 90 targets after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' on July 9.
Reuters, carried by The Business Times, reported lower Brent and WTI settlements as traders priced a possible US-Iran agreement. The same report noted that a memorandum had not yet been signed and could still change.
Brent futures settled at US$87.33 a barrel, down US$3.05, or 3.4 per cent. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that a memorandum of understanding had not yet been signed and could still change.
Reuters reported that oil rose after Trump said the United States would hit Iran again and that Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, while U.S.-Iran messages on a memorandum continued. The row is material because it updates both escalation and partial negotiation channels around the trigger threshold.
Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have recently escalated. Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after the U.S. launched additional strikes against Iran and as Trump vowed more attacks if no peace deal is secured.
Reuters reported a second successive day of U.S.-Iran air attacks and Trump's threat to take Kharg Island. The row is material because it adds a fresh kinetic escalation path tied to Iranian oil infrastructure and the Hormuz conflict.
The U.S. carried out attacks across Iran on Thursday and Tehran fired at U.S. bases in the region following Monday's downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said "military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defense sites across Iran" had been targeted in about four hours of attacks in response to Tehran's "unwarranted and continued aggression."
CME reported a large intraday WTI swing as cancelled strike reports reduced escalation pricing, while US inventory data still showed tightening. This is market-data context, not evidence of physical reopening.
Bob Iaccino discusses the massive 8% intraday swing in July WTI Crude Oil futures. Prices initially gapped higher, touching 93.64, before reversing sharply following reports that the administration canceled planned strikes on Iran.