Tier 3 · 1× Quiet

AI cyber incident

AI cyber is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.12, status quiet. The Register (May 25, 2026) reports Anthropic plans eventual public release of Mythos-class models while acknowledging no company has developed safeguards strong enough to prevent misuse. The position de-loads absent a confirmed systemic AI service outage, the threshold defined in section 13.

Current probability
12%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
Systemic AI service outage
Tier weight
P range
0–25%
Last update
04:02 UTC
Current prob
12%
current
Status
Quiet
·
Tier
Tier 3
weight 1×
P min
0%
floor
P max
25%
ceiling
Updated
04:02 UTC
live
Threshold definition

Systemic AI service outage

AI cyber is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.12, status quiet. The Register (May 25, 2026) reports Anthropic plans eventual public release of Mythos-class models while acknowledging no company has developed safeguards strong enough to prevent misuse. The position de-loads absent a confirmed systemic AI service outage, the threshold defined in section 13.

Recent evidence