Tier 3 · 1× Quiet

AI cyber incident

AI cyber is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.18, status quiet. Nextgov/FCW (2026-07-13) reports that a vulnerability can become a working exploit within hours of disclosure, outpacing human-speed defense. The framework treats this as scenario output under section 7.4, not a probability claim. The position remains quiet absent a confirmed systemic outage or cross-firm financial transmission; section 13 governs escalation.

12-month trigger estimate
18%/ 100
FORWARD-LOOKING TRIGGER ESTIMATE
Threshold
Systemic AI service outage
Tier weight
P range
0–25%
Last update
12:20 UTC
12-mo estimate
18%
not the CCI
Status
Quiet
·
Tier
Tier 3
weight 1×
P min
0%
floor
P max
25%
ceiling
Updated
12:20 UTC
live
Threshold definition

Systemic AI service outage

AI cyber is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.18, status quiet. Nextgov/FCW (2026-07-13) reports that a vulnerability can become a working exploit within hours of disclosure, outpacing human-speed defense. The framework treats this as scenario output under section 7.4, not a probability claim. The position remains quiet absent a confirmed systemic outage or cross-firm financial transmission; section 13 governs escalation.

Recent evidence