Tier 3 · 1× Quiet

Stablecoin de-peg

Stablecoin is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.05, status quiet; the framework records no active de-peg event as of 2026-05-26. CoinGecko (2026-05-26) confirms USDT price at $0.9988, a 0.0% 24-hour change, well above the configured activation threshold. The framework would revise this position if the USDT price sustained a breach of the configured floor for the required observation window.

Current probability
5%/ 100
12-MONTH FORWARD HORIZON
Threshold
USDT < $0.97 for > 1 hour
Tier weight
P range
0–20%
Last update
20:41 UTC
Current prob
5%
current
Status
Quiet
·
Tier
Tier 3
weight 1×
P min
0%
floor
P max
20%
ceiling
Updated
20:41 UTC
live
Threshold definition

USDT < $0.97 for > 1 hour

Stablecoin is a Tier 3 trigger at prior 0.05, status quiet; the framework records no active de-peg event as of 2026-05-26. CoinGecko (2026-05-26) confirms USDT price at $0.9988, a 0.0% 24-hour change, well above the configured activation threshold. The framework would revise this position if the USDT price sustained a breach of the configured floor for the required observation window.

Recent evidence