Forecast log — whenwecrash.com

2026-06-05 20:28 UTC

private_credit (trigger)

2_of_3_within_tolerance

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "run_uuid": "7a78bb78-8cf2-4064-80be-bb67d79796f7",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "validator_panel": {
    "A": "accept",
    "B": "accept"
  },
  "validators": [
    {
      "blocking_issues": [],
      "checks": {
        "check1": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "ProposalPayload schema fits: entity_type trigger, change_type evidence_added, empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team is a dict."
        },
        "check2": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Evidence rows match posted UUIDs and include fresh Grade A/B material from Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor; all numeric and date claims in reasoning_summary are supported by raw quotes or framework state."
        },
        "check3": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Paper discipline is satisfied: section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing is used, section 13.6 anchor exists, no prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear."
        },
        "check4": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Magnitude is plausible because evidence_added makes no prior or status move; the evidence supports adding material operating, redemption, filing, and ratings rows."
        },
        "check5": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Framework coherence holds: current prior is stated as already 0.25 and status active, so no upward state move is available while fresh evidence continues to support active monitoring."
        }
      },
      "entity_id": "private_credit",
      "reasoning": "Accept. The private_credit proposal cites five evidence UUIDs that are present in evidence_rows_for_validation and match the posted UUIDs. Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor quotes support the issuance slowdown, redemption caps, tender terms, Moody\u0027s negative outlook action, BXSL non-accrual figures, and Fitch counterfactor. The cited section 7.4 and section 13.6 anchors exist in paper_section_hashes.json, and the evidence_added action is coherent for an already active trigger at 0.25.",
      "validator": "A",
      "verdict": "accept"
    },
    {
      "blocking_issues": [],
      "checks": {
        "check1": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "ProposalPayload schema fits: trigger/private_credit, change_type evidence_added, empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, validation_team is an object."
        },
        "check2": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "All five cited UUIDs are present in evidence_rows_for_validation and match posted UUIDs; newest Reuters row is 2026-06-05, within the 5-day active Tier-1 window, with A/B rows from Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor."
        },
        "check3": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Reasoning uses Layer A scenario-output framing under section 7.4, does not invoke Layer B or Layer C figures, cites section 13.6 only as unmet bull-case conditions, and contains no hard-reject phrase."
        },
        "check4": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No prior or status move is proposed; evidence_added is plausible because the proposal says private_credit is already at current_prior 0.25 and status active while fresh evidence is confirmatory and mixed by Fitch\u0027s counterfactor."
        },
        "check5": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No contradiction with the stated active private_credit state is visible; the proposal adds evidence without lowering or raising framework state."
        }
      },
      "entity_id": "private_credit",
      "reasoning": "Accept. The Reuters, SEC EDGAR, and Alternative Credit Investor rows support the numeric claims in the reasoning_summary, including issuance falling to $44.76 billion, BCRED requests at 10%, Cliffwater requests at 17%, BXSL non-accruals at 4.7 per cent, and Fitch\u0027s below-2.0x leverage counterfactor. The cited paper anchors exist in paper_section_hashes.json and the proposal keeps section 7.4 scenario-output framing without arithmetic layer combination.",
      "validator": "B",
      "verdict": "accept"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5989386

Reuters via reuters Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Blackstone Private Credit Fund SEC EDGAR via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B

Reuters (2026-06-05) adds a same-day operating read: private credit direct lending issuance fell to $44.76 billion in the three months ended May 2026, down about 40% from $74.56 billion in Q1, while BCRED and Cliffwater capped withdrawals at 5% after 10% and 17% redemption requests. Reuters (2026-06-04) separately confirms BCRED's $79 billion fund limited Q2 withdrawals to 5% after requests rose to 10% from 7.9%, and SEC EDGAR shows the May tender offer represented approximately 5% of shares with pro rata treatment above 93,100,275 shares. Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-03) reports Moody's cut Blackstone and Golub BDC outlooks from stable to negative and that BXSL non-accruals rose to 4.7 per cent from 0.6 per cent, while Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-01) reports Fitch's counterfactor that rated BDCs remain below 2.0x leverage in stress scenarios but expects requests above five per cent in Q2 2026 and potentially throughout the year. Current prior is already 0.25 and status active, so no upward prior or status move is available; this is Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Section 13.6 bull-case conditions remain unmet because the fresh evidence does not show two quarters of full redemptions without support, a stable BDC sector outlook, or sustained improvement across default and stress metrics.

2026-06-05 20:02 UTC

rates_fiscal (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "proposal_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:59:30.434494+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:59:30.434494+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ee5c54b0ea06836a",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5e81ca96f7844faf",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "watching",
  "threshold_definition": "10y Treasury yield shock, term-premium widening, or failed long-end auction stress."
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5990936
BLS Employment Situation Release via fred Grade A registry: FRED Investing.com CA via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Reuters via reuters Grade A TreasuryDirect Auction Results via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes via fred Grade A registry: FRED BLS CPI Release via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BLS Employment Situation Release (Grade A, 2026-06-05) showed 172,000 payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3 percent, Reuters (Grade B, 2026-06-02) re…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BLS Employment Situation Release (Grade A, 2026-06-05) showed 172,000 payroll gains with unemployment at 4.3 percent, Reuters (Grade B, 2026-06-02) reported a Fed policymaker saying inflation is too high while the funds target is 3.5% to 3.75%, and Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes (Grade A, 2026-05-20) kept the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent while saying inflation remained above the 2 percent goal. Direct trigger-stress evidence is offsetting rather than sufficient for a prior raise: Investing.com CA showed MOVE at 73.58 on 2026-06-03, the BLS CPI row showed CPI-U at 3.8 percent, and the latest official auction row is a 182-Day Bill with a 3.665% high rate and 2.84 bid-to-cover ratio rather than 2y/5y/10y/30y auction-tail evidence. Section 13 falsification criteria are mixed: CPI normalization, defined as YoY below 3.0% for 2 consecutive quarterly readings, is NOT met; auction stress normalization, defined as tail below 2.0 bp on 3 consecutive 2y/5y/10y/30y auctions, is NOT established; MOVE normalization, defined as below 110 for 30 calendar days, is NOT established by a single 73.58 row; Fed policy headroom restored, defined as Fed funds below 4.0% OR 2+ cuts signaled, IS met by the 3.5% to 3.75% target range. Because one falsification condition is met and the cited threshold mix is sub-active, the corrected action is evidence_added rather than a prior_change, while preserving the same evidence base as a watching-state update.
2026-06-05 19:49 UTC

taiwan (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:49:37Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:49:37Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "reasoning": "All five checks pass in proposal mode. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense rows dated 2026-06-03 through 2026-06-05 and a Grade B Bloomberg row dated 2026-05-08, with quoted numeric claims matching the evidence. Check 3 is satisfied because section 7.4 scenario-output framing, section 7.7 independence, and section 13 threshold language are present without prohibited probability wording; evidence_added makes Check 4 magnitude neutral.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema fits ProposalPayload for trigger evidence_added with empty new_value and validation_team as a dict; Taiwan Ministry of National Defense Grade A rows dated Jun. 3-5, 2026 and Bloomberg News Grade B dated May 8, 2026 support the quoted numeric/date claims and are fresh for quiet Tier-1 evidence accumulation. Paper anchors section 7.4, section 7.7, and section 13 exist in the hash file, the summary frames Layer A as scenario output and does not combine layers arithmetically; no state magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5991693
Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Bloomberg News via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Taiwan MND Jun. 5, 2026 (Grade A): 7 sorties of PLA aircraft, 10 PLAN ships and 6 official ships were detected, and 5 out of 7 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. Taiwan MND Jun. 4, 2026 (Grad…

Taiwan MND Jun. 5, 2026 (Grade A): 7 sorties of PLA aircraft, 10 PLAN ships and 6 official ships were detected, and 5 out of 7 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. Taiwan MND Jun. 4, 2026 (Grade A): 32 sorties of PLA aircraft, 10 PLAN ships and 5 official ships were detected, and 25 out of 32 sorties crossed the median line into Taiwan's northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ; Taiwan MND Jun. 3, 2026 (Grade A): 18 sorties of PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN ships and 6 official ships were detected, and 14 out of 18 crossed the median line. Bloomberg News May 8, 2026 (Grade B): Taiwan's legislature voted to provide NT$780 billion ($24.8 billion), below NT$1.25 trillion sought and above NT$380 billion initially proposed by the opposition, adding deterrence-capacity context rather than a threshold event. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim; section 7.7 layer independence preserved. Section 13 raise criteria remain unmet: no ODNI or DIA language hardening was fetched, no >2 carrier group plus >100k troop-equivalent threshold was shown, and Taiwan MND did not declare a rehearsal-of-assault; the threshold definition, Any kinetic cross-strait incident, was not crossed, so this is evidence accumulation only.
2026-06-05 19:30 UTC

ai_capex (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value and non-empty evidence_uuids. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B rows from PIMCO, Bloomberg, and S\u0026P Global Ratings, with all numeric claims in reasoning_summary present in the cited quotes. Check 3 paper anchors section 7.4 and section 13 are hashed, and the proposal keeps Layer A as scenario-output framing without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The cited PIMCO, S\u0026P Global Ratings, and Bloomberg rows are fresh for ai_capex status rising and support the numeric claims in the reasoning_summary; section 7.4 scenario-output framing and section 13 falsification language are present, with no unsupported status transition or prior move.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.3,
  "status": "rising"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5992847
PIMCO via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg PIMCO via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg PIMCO via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Bloomberg via bloomberg Grade A S&P Global Ratings via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global

PIMCO and S&P Global Ratings add fresh credit-channel evidence: PIMCO says hyperscaler capex estimates have climbed to nearly $690 billion for 2026 and $870 billion for 2027, with capex expected to ab…

PIMCO and S&P Global Ratings add fresh credit-channel evidence: PIMCO says hyperscaler capex estimates have climbed to nearly $690 billion for 2026 and $870 billion for 2027, with capex expected to absorb 94% of operating cash flow, while S&P Global Ratings estimates rated hyperscalers will spend about $750 billion on 2026 capex and issued $115 billion of debt in the first quarter of 2026. Bloomberg adds market-risk corroboration, reporting that 34% of Bank of America global fund managers identified AI hyperscaler capital spending as the most likely source of a future systemic credit event. Layer A scenario-output framing (section 7.4): these rows strengthen the evidence chain for capex-to-cash-flow compression and credit-market transmission, but they do not show a top-7 hyperscaler capex cut or a status transition. Falsification per section 13: the trigger threshold remains a greater than 25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler; the new evidence shows escalation and financing strain, not a cut crossing that threshold. Evidence accumulation is therefore appropriate at current_prior 0.30 and status rising.

2026-06-05 19:30 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T19:30:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. The evidence_added ProposalPayload is schema-fit with new_value {}, cited AP/Reuters/EIA/IEA/CME rows are fresh Grade A/B material for active Tier-1 iran_hormuz, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary match the quoted rows. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist in the hash file, no prohibited phrases or layer arithmetic appear, and no magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema fits ProposalPayload for trigger evidence_added with empty new_value, and Tier-1 active freshness is satisfied by Grade A Associated Press on 2026-06-03 and Reuters on 2026-06-01, with EIA and IEA primary rows inside the section 10 aging window. Numeric claims in reasoning_summary match cited quotes, section 7.4 Layer A is framed as scenario output rather than a probability claim, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist, and no prior/status magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5992847

Associated Press via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Reuters via reuters Grade A U.S. Energy Information Administration via eia Grade A IEA Oil Market Report via iea Grade A registry: International Energy Agency CME Group via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Fresh Associated Press, Reuters, EIA, IEA, and CME rows reinforce the existing active Hormuz state, but the trigger is already at p_max 0.45 so no prior increase is available. Reuters reports stopped message exchanges and an agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz; IEA reports more than 14 mb/d shut in and cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels; EIA reports 10.5 million barrels per day shut in in April with shipping traffic only beginning to pick up in June. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4, not a probability claim. Falsification check under section 13: sustained Hormuz traffic restoration above 70%, Brent below $75 for more than 3 months, and a ceasefire holding more than 6 months are not crossed; section 13.6(c) and section 13.6(e) downgrade conditions are also not established by this evidence pack. This is evidence accumulation, not a status or prior change.

2026-06-04 10:19 UTC

vix (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-04T09:34:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "b235ea9a-b2c1-441c-9421-763fb0a3c9f8",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 16.45
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 16.45
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

6112327
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b235ea9a-b2c1-441c-9421-763fb0a3c9f8; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b235ea9a-b2c1-441c-9421-763fb0a3c9f8; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-03 07:49 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "deterministic_threshold",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "deterministic_threshold",
  "evidence_only_finalizer": true,
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "source_run_uuid": "01d08934-8520-4795-ab87-fceb5a7009ca",
  "specialist_model": "evidence_finalizer",
  "step": 0,
  "voters": []
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

actual_voters
```
[]
```
accepted_voters_count

0

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

6207694
Reuters via reuters Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A IEA via iea Grade A registry: International Energy Agency EIA via eia Grade A registry: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Fresh evidence ingested for iran_hormuz; framework state held unchanged. Fresh Reuters, IEA, and EIA evidence reinforces active Hormuz stress but current prior is already at p_max 0.45 and no de-load …

Fresh evidence ingested for iran_hormuz; framework state held unchanged. Fresh Reuters, IEA, and EIA evidence reinforces active Hormuz stress but current prior is already at p_max 0.45 and no de-load criteria are met. Evidence rows: Reuters 2026-06-03: Oil prices rise as new Middle East hostilities flare and talks stall; Reuters 2026-06-03: Iran is stopping message exchanges with U.S., may block Hormuz, Tasnim news agency says; IEA 2026-06-03: Oil Market Report - May 2026; EIA 2026-06-03: Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased sharply in the first quarter of 2026.
2026-06-03 05:51 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "accept_reject",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-03T05:51:16.917625+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-03T05:48:54.847718+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f1d5be1e125f1656",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All proposal-mode checks pass. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows, with Grade C sofrrate.com and Yahoo Finance used only as supplemental anchors. Check 3 paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 and section 13 hashes exist in paper_section_hashes.json, the Layer A claim is framed as scenario output, and no prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6d934fa9f7c802ae",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Passes Check 1 schema for proposal mode and Check 2 evidence sufficiency: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows are Grade A, fresh for a quiet trigger, and provide new numeric inputs. Check 3 paper anchors are valid for section 7.4 and section 13 hashes, with no prohibited probability phrasing or arithmetic layer combination. No prior/status move is proposed, so Checks 4 and 5 show no unsupported magnitude or framework contradiction.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6214792
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve and NY Fed data) via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED Yahoo Finance (ICE BofAML MOVE Index) via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR API quotes effectiveDate 2026-06-01, percentRate 3.65, and volumeInBillions 3224; sofrrate.com policy-rates quotes latest data for June 1st, 2026 with IORB 3.65, …

Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR API quotes effectiveDate 2026-06-01, percentRate 3.65, and volumeInBillions 3224; sofrrate.com policy-rates quotes latest data for June 1st, 2026 with IORB 3.65, so the operator threshold SOFR-IORB > 25 bps is not met. Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo API quotes operationDate 2026-06-02 with two full-allotment overnight repo windows at totalAmtSubmitted 6000000 and totalAmtAccepted 6000000, while Federal Reserve H.4.1 quotes Release Date: May 28, 2026, Repurchase agreements 6: 111, Reverse repurchase agreements 6: 300,879, and Other deposits held by depository institutions: 3,067,025. Existing MOVE evidence quotes 81.53 and 52 Week Range: 48.26 - 140.03, which remains below the section 13 criterion. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 hash 11edacfef2a5554a7c91dc5f7d8d74ebf9ef8dc9; falsification criteria per section 13 hash 29e786b5e67df80f66c12053f1095094d645f224 -- MOVE above 130 for five or more consecutive sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delay -- remain uncrossed, so this is evidence accumulation only with prior 0.12 and status quiet unchanged.
2026-06-02 22:31 UTC

taiwan (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T22:31:23Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T22:31:23Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "0eee65bbcb2ca93e",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense and Reuters rows are fresh Grade A/B evidence, quotes support the cited Jun 1-Jun 2 numeric claims, section 7.4 and section 7.7 anchors exist, and evidence_added makes no unsupported magnitude move.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9645829c35f5ab56",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is valid for trigger/taiwan with change_type evidence_added, fresh Taiwan MND Grade A and Reuters Grade B rows support the numeric and date claims, and section 7.4, section 7.7, and section 13 anchors exist in the hash set. No prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination appear, and the payload records evidence accumulation without a prior or status move.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6241187
Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A

Taiwan MND Jun 2, 2026 (Grade A): 7 sorties of PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN ships and 5 official ships were detected around Taiwan, and 7 out of 7 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. Taiwan MND Jun 1,…

Taiwan MND Jun 2, 2026 (Grade A): 7 sorties of PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN ships and 5 official ships were detected around Taiwan, and 7 out of 7 sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. Taiwan MND Jun 1, 2026 (Grade A): 7 PLAN ships and 4 official ships were detected, with no PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan during that timeframe. Reuters Jun 1, 2026 (Grade B): Liaoning and accompanying vessels cruised east of the Philippines' Luzon island between May 26 and May 28, and Liaoning-based aircraft conducted roughly 170 take-off and landing drills; a separate Reuters Jun 1 row reported China Coast Guard law enforcement patrols east of Taiwan. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim; section 7.7 layer independence preserved. Section 13 raise criteria remain unmet: no ODNI or DIA language hardening was fetched, no greater-than-2-carrier-group plus greater-than-100k-troop-equivalent threshold was shown, and Taiwan MND did not declare a rehearsal-of-assault; threshold definition was not crossed, so this is evidence accumulation only.

2026-06-02 20:49 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T20:49:59.333734+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T20:49:59.333734+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload for amplifier ig_supply with change_type evidence_added, empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team as a dict. Check 2 evidence is sufficient: SIFMA, Federal Reserve H.15, and Federal Reserve H.4.1 are Grade A primary sources with June 2 and May 28 2026 dates, and the numeric claims in reasoning_summary match the cited quotes. Check 3 paper discipline is satisfied with section 7.4 scenario-output framing and section 13 falsification constants treated as paper constants, with no prohibited phrases or layer arithmetic.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 passes for amplifier ig_supply with change_type evidence_added, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team as a dict. Check 2 passes because SIFMA, Federal Reserve H.15, and Federal Reserve H.4.1 are Grade A/primary rows, fresh as of June 2 or May 28, 2026, and their quoted numbers support the summary. Check 3 passes: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 13 is used for framework constants, and no prohibited phrase or arithmetic layer combination appears.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6247271

SIFMA via sifma Grade A registry: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Federal Reserve H.15 via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve H.4.1 via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output (section 7.4), not a probability claim. SIFMA (June 2, 2026, Grade A) reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, updating the corporate IG supply leg and implying display text should remain corp-IG-only as corp IG $1.2T YTD 2026 (SIFMA). Federal Reserve H.15 (June 2, 2026, Grade A) reports 10-year Treasury CMT at 4.47% and 30-year CMT at 4.99% for Jun 1, while Federal Reserve H.4.1 (May 28, 2026, Grade A) shows U.S. Treasury securities at 4,461,156 million with +8,472 week change and +247,491 year change, so the latest primary rates and SOMA rows do not show a fresh absorption break. Falsification check (section 13): the cited SIFMA corporate issuance figure remains far below the approximately $15T total-supply criterion; this run cites no row showing MOVE at 130 for 5 or more sessions and no row showing a hyperscaler single-tranche event above $30B, so no state shift is warranted. Evidence accumulation updates the leading scheduled SIFMA print and primary Fed market backdrop while keeping current_state at 0.55.

2026-06-02 20:49 UTC

cre_debt_wall (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T20:49:59.333734+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T20:49:59.333734+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for the cre_debt_wall evidence_added ProposalPayload. Trepp, FDIC, and Mortgage Bankers Association quotes directly support the numeric claims, include Grade A/B evidence within the amplifier cadence rules, and section 7.4 and section 13 framing is present without prohibited probability language. No magnitude move is proposed because new_value is empty for evidence_added.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for amplifier cre_debt_wall evidence_added. Trepp, FDIC, and Mortgage Bankers Association quotes support the numeric/date claims, with Grade A/B sufficiency and slow-cadence freshness for MBA/FDIC. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 13 and section 13.6 references are hashed anchors, and no state shift creates a magnitude or coherence issue.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6247271
Trepp via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg FDIC via fdic Grade A registry: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Mortgage Bankers Association via mba Grade A

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-01) reports the CMBS delinquency rate increased by one basis point to 7.55% in May 2026, with the five largest newly delinquent loans accounting for $1.86 billion of $4.04 bill…

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-01) reports the CMBS delinquency rate increased by one basis point to 7.55% in May 2026, with the five largest newly delinquent loans accounting for $1.86 billion of $4.04 billion in newly delinquent loans. FDIC (Grade A, 2026-05-27) reports nonfarm nonresidential CRE PDNA up 3 basis points to 1.65 percent, with multifamily CRE and non-owner-occupied CRE PDNA rates still elevated. Mortgage Bankers Association (Grade A, 2026-04-27) reports commercial mortgage delinquency at 4.02 percent versus 3.86 percent in the previous quarter, while CMBS balances 30 days or more delinquent rose to 5.21% from 4.97%. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim. Falsification (section 13): MBA overall delinquency remains below the 5% raise threshold, and the fresh Trepp delinquency update does not itself establish CMBS distress above the 15% raise threshold or a Top-30 issuer failure event. Bull-case (section 13.6) is not met because the newly cited delinquency evidence is rising or elevated rather than showing sustained improvement; evidence_added with no current_state shift.

2026-06-02 20:27 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T20:27:04.365113+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T20:27:04.365104+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for amplifier concentration evidence_added: schema/enums fit, validation_team is a dict, and new_upload placeholders map to the three evidence_to_upload rows. Check 2 is satisfied by Grade A issuer/trade rows from State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, and ICI dated Jun 1-2 2026, with quoted SPY/IVV weights and ETF net issuance supporting the numeric claims. Check 3 passes because the summary uses section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing, cites section 13 falsification conditionally, avoids hard-reject phrases, and does not combine Layer A/B/C figures.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: amplifier/evidence_added schema fits, validation_team is a dict, and new_upload placeholders map to the three evidence_to_upload rows. State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, and ICI provide fresh Jun 01-02 2026 numeric inputs for concentration and ETF flows; Layer A scenario-output framing and section 13 falsification language are present without prohibited probability wording.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6248646

State Street SSGA via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global Investment Company Institute (ICI) via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global

ICI's June 2, 2026 weekly release reports ETF shares issued exceeded shares redeemed by $29.61 billion for the week ended May 27, 2026, so the freshest flow evidence does not show redemption stress. State Street SSGA's Jun 01 2026 SPY page still shows elevated issuer concentration signals, including NVIDIA at 8.36%, Apple at 6.89%, and information technology at 39.41%; BlackRock iShares separately reports IVV net assets of $859,853,605,917 and information technology exposure of 38.48%. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim: mechanical contribution remains the main visible concentration channel, while flow indicators from the fetched ICI release are not confirming a forced-unwind channel. Section 13 falsification is not newly escalated by the fetched rows: no source-published Mag-7 aggregate threshold breach, no ETF redemption stress, and no vol-targeted fund deleveraging event appears in the current evidence. Bull-case downshift conditions are also not established by these rows, because earnings-guidance persistence and volatility-regime normalization are outside the fetched evidence set; evidence_added with no state shift is warranted.

2026-06-02 20:27 UTC

equity_valuation (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T20:27:03.107263+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T20:27:03.107243+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: the amplifier evidence_added ProposalPayload schema is valid, validation_team is a dict, and evidence_uuids map to the four evidence_to_upload rows. Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data), FRED / S\u0026P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Damodaran / NYU Stern, and GMO support the cited Jun 1, 2026 CAPE, S\u0026P 500, ERP, Treasury-rate, and forecast numbers; section 7.3 n=1 and section 7.4 scenario-output framing are present, with section 13 and section 13.6 reviewed and no state shift proposed.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: amplifier evidence_added payload schema fits, Multpl.com/Shiller and FRED provide Grade A current valuation inputs dated Jun 1, 2026, and Damodaran/NYU Stern plus GMO support the falsification and confirmatory valuation claims. Paper discipline is adequate with section 7.3 n=1 caveat and section 7.4 scenario-output framing, with no arithmetic layer combination or state-shift magnitude issue.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6248647
Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) via multpl Grade A registry: Multpl FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC via fred Grade A registry: FRED Aswath Damodaran / NYU Stern via fred Grade A registry: FRED GMO via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Fresh evidence updates the live valuation read without requiring a numeric state shift: Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data, Grade A, new_upload_0) reports Shiller CAPE at 42.78 on Jun 1, 2026, newer than…

Fresh evidence updates the live valuation read without requiring a numeric state shift: Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data, Grade A, new_upload_0) reports Shiller CAPE at 42.78 on Jun 1, 2026, newer than the prior pack's latest CAPE evidence, and FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (Grade A, new_upload_1) reports the S&P 500 close at 7,599.96 on the same date. 1999-2000 is the only completed historical episode of CAPE at or above the regime threshold (n=1 historical analog at the episode level); this is descriptive single-episode evidence, not an independent-event probability per section 7.3, and this proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing per section 7.4. Damodaran / NYU Stern (Grade B, new_upload_2) reports implied ERP at 4.18% on Jun 1, 2026 with a US Treasury rate of 4.44%, so the section 13 ERP-compression falsification condition is not supported by current evidence. GMO (Grade B, new_upload_3) reports U.S. Large seven-year real return forecasts of -7.2% and -4.2% as of Apr 30, 2026, which is confirmatory valuation evidence rather than a fresh threshold crossing. Section 13 falsification and section 13.6 bull-case review: the cited current evidence does not document a sustained upper-threshold CAPE break, does not validate a broad non-AI multiple expansion override, and does not establish four of five bull-case conditions; evidence_added with no state shift is the appropriate action.
2026-06-02 20:06 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is complete, consensus_rule:null is allowed, and evidence_uuids map to raw rows. Check 2 has current CoinGecko and DefiLlama price inputs plus Grade A primary Circle, Tether International, and Federal Reserve Board support within the Tier-1 quiet freshness window or scheduled-release cadence. Check 3 paper discipline is adequate with Layer A framed as scenario output and section 13 falsification language; no prohibited phrases or arithmetic layer combination found.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 passes ProposalPayload schema, including old_value and consensus_rule:null. Check 2 passes with same-day CoinGecko and DefiLlama peg snapshots plus Grade A primary Circle and Federal Reserve Board support; quoted dates and numeric claims match the evidence. Check 3 passes because the Layer A statement is framed as scenario output, no prohibited phrases appear, and section 13 falsification language is used without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6249889
CoinGecko via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg DefiLlama via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Circle (USDC Issuer) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Tether International via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-02, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-02, new_upload_1) show USDT, USDC, and other large stablecoins trading close to $1.00, with USDT above the operator floor …

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-02, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-02, new_upload_1) show USDT, USDC, and other large stablecoins trading close to $1.00, with USDT above the operator floor in the threshold definition. Circle (Grade A primary, 2026-05-28, new_upload_2) states USDC is redeemable 1:1 and that monthly third-party assurance checks reserves exceed circulation, while Tether International (Grade A primary, 2026-05-01, new_upload_3) reports BDO-prepared Q1 2026 attestation data with a record reserve buffer and Treasury-heavy backing. Federal Reserve Board (Grade A primary, 2026-05-08, new_upload_4) confirms stablecoin market capitalization remains at record highs and identifies reserve transparency and redemption rights as run-risk mitigants, adding systemic scale context without showing an active peg break. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification section 13: no sustained (>72h) >5% peg break in a top-3 stablecoin is observed in the fetched evidence, no measurable Treasury-bill price impact or money-market fund flow disruption from a de-peg event is observed, and no OCC or Treasury intervention is reported; evidence accumulation reinforces current_prior 0.05 and status quiet with no state change.
2026-06-02 20:06 UTC

ai_cyber (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

prior_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.14,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Accept: Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload with old_value and consensus_rule:null allowed. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A official/primary rows from The White House, Financial Stability Board, Federal Reserve Board, Anthropic, CrowdStrike, and OpenAI, and the 0.12 to 0.14 move is supported. Check 3 paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 13 falsification criteria are addressed, and no hard reject phrase or arithmetic layer combination appears.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.14,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is complete, old_value is explicit, validation_team is a dict, and consensus_rule:null is allowed. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A official sources including The White House, Financial Stability Board, and Federal Reserve Board, plus material Anthropic, CrowdStrike, and OpenAI rows. Check 3 passes because Layer A is framed as scenario output and section 13 falsification language is conditional without prohibited probability wording; the 0.12 to 0.14 move is modest and coherent with quiet status.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.14
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6249891
Anthropic via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg The White House via cisa Grade A registry: Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Financial Stability Board via bis Grade A registry: Bank for International Settlements Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED CrowdStrike via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg OpenAI via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Anthropic's Project Glasswing expansion, the White House AI cyber order, the FSB plenary warning, the Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, CrowdStrike's insurance-sector QuiltWorks expansion, a…

Anthropic's Project Glasswing expansion, the White House AI cyber order, the FSB plenary warning, the Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, CrowdStrike's insurance-sector QuiltWorks expansion, and OpenAI's governance framework together show a further acceleration in frontier-AI cyber capability diffusion and official response beyond the current pack. The most material new elements are official or quasi-official actions: CISA-directed binding operational directives and a Treasury/NSA/CISA clearinghouse, FSB language that frontier AI models may sharply increase cyber risks, and the Fed's identification of LLM and agentic AI vulnerability exploitation as a challenge for financial institutions, infrastructures, and third-party providers. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification per section 13 is still not met: no confirmed systemic AI service outage, no SIC 6000-series Item 1.05 with disclosed loss at or above the 0.5% market-cap threshold, and no CISA or joint advisory naming an AI-enabled vector with cross-firm scope was found in this window. Bull-case qualifier: the most capable vendor programs remain controlled or trusted access, and the official actions emphasize vulnerability discovery, patching, and defensive coordination rather than a confirmed systemic incident. The prior should move from 0.12 to 0.14 while status remains quiet absent a threshold-crossing outage or financial-sector contagion event.
2026-06-02 19:29 UTC

private_credit (trigger)

3 of expected 4 validators accepted; 0 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

3_of_4_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 2,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:00Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "claude",
      "model": "codex-gpt-5",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "reject",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "7702c234d4ce2a9fee19ec31090d6cf9e0ddd5db",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "OpenAI",
      "model": "GPT-5.5 Codex high reasoning",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "C"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "D"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

3_of_4

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B",
  "C",
  "D"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

3

missing_voters_count

0

final_rule

3_of_4_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6252086
Reuters via reuters Grade A Financial Stability Board via bis Grade A registry: Bank for International Settlements Alternative Credit Investor via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Golub Capital Private Credit Fund Form 8-K via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR

Reuters (2026-05-29) adds a current BDC asset-quality datapoint: aggregate unrealised losses equalled 2.35% of NAV in Q1 2026, the steepest since Q2 2022. FSB (2026-05-28) reiterates official monitori…

Reuters (2026-05-29) adds a current BDC asset-quality datapoint: aggregate unrealised losses equalled 2.35% of NAV in Q1 2026, the steepest since Q2 2022. FSB (2026-05-28) reiterates official monitoring of private credit at $1.5-2.0 trillion at end-2024 with follow-up on liquidity mismatch, while SEC EDGAR GCRED May 22 gives fund-level exposure of $9,994 million portfolio, $5,548 million debt and 1.21x leverage. Alternative Credit Investor (2026-05-27) is a counterfactor: BDCs are around $500bn of private credit and institutional dry powder around $600bn may offset semi-liquid outflows, so the evidence is additive rather than state-changing. Current prior is already 0.25 and status active, so no upward prior/status move is available; Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Section 13.6 bull-case conditions remain unmet because the fresh evidence does not show two quarters of full redemptions without support, a Stable BDC sector outlook, or a sustained improvement across default/stress metrics.
2026-06-02 19:29 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

prior_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:30Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:30Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.24,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "sonnet-4.6-via-codex-gpt",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.24,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5",
      "prompt_hash": "7702c234d4ce2a9fee19ec31090d6cf9e0ddd5db",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.21
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.24
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6252086
Reuters via reuters Grade A Bank of Japan via boj Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Ministry of Finance Japan via mof Grade A registry: Japanese Ministry of Finance

Reuters on 2026-06-02 reports net short yen positions rose to 114,667 contracts in late May, the largest since July 2024, while Japan spent 11.7 trillion yen since April to support the yen; that is ne…

Reuters on 2026-06-02 reports net short yen positions rose to 114,667 contracts in late May, the largest since July 2024, while Japan spent 11.7 trillion yen since April to support the yen; that is new impact-cleared positioning and intervention evidence. BOJ on 2026-06-02 reports USD/JPY at 159.68-69 at 17:00 JST, with the pair still far from the trigger threshold of JPY < 140 in < 5 sessions but close to the intervention zone where forced policy response risk is elevated. Reuters on 2026-06-02 also reports a major Japanese bank market chief saying the BOJ should raise interest rates in June, and MOF on 2026-05-29 confirms JPY 11,734.9 billion of intervention for April 28, 2026 through May 27, 2026. Layer A scenario output under section 7.4, with layer independence under section 7.7: this is not a threshold-crossing unwind, but the carry setup is more crowded and policy-sensitive than the stale 0.21 prior reflected. Section 13 falsification criteria remain unmet: no BOJ unexpected rate hike above 25bp is cited here, no USD/JPY 1-year implied vol crossing 14% is cited here, and no single-day Nikkei drop above 5% on a carry catalyst is cited here; section 13.6 pause or slowed-normalization bull-case condition is not met by the cited evidence.
2026-06-02 19:29 UTC

private_credit (trigger)

3 of expected 4 validators accepted; 0 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

3_of_4_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 2,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:00Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "claude",
      "model": "codex-gpt-5",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "reject",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "7702c234d4ce2a9fee19ec31090d6cf9e0ddd5db",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": {},
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "OpenAI",
      "model": "GPT-5.5 Codex high reasoning",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "C"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "D"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

3_of_4

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B",
  "C",
  "D"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

3

missing_voters_count

0

final_rule

3_of_4_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6252126
Reuters via reuters Grade A Financial Stability Board via bis Grade A registry: Bank for International Settlements Alternative Credit Investor via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Golub Capital Private Credit Fund Form 8-K via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR

Reuters (2026-05-29) adds a current BDC asset-quality datapoint: aggregate unrealised losses equalled 2.35% of NAV in Q1 2026, the steepest since Q2 2022. FSB (2026-05-28) reiterates official monitori…

Reuters (2026-05-29) adds a current BDC asset-quality datapoint: aggregate unrealised losses equalled 2.35% of NAV in Q1 2026, the steepest since Q2 2022. FSB (2026-05-28) reiterates official monitoring of private credit at $1.5-2.0 trillion at end-2024 with follow-up on liquidity mismatch, while SEC EDGAR GCRED May 22 gives fund-level exposure of $9,994 million portfolio, $5,548 million debt and 1.21x leverage. Alternative Credit Investor (2026-05-27) is a counterfactor: BDCs are around $500bn of private credit and institutional dry powder around $600bn may offset semi-liquid outflows, so the evidence is additive rather than state-changing. Current prior is already 0.25 and status active, so no upward prior/status move is available; Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Section 13.6 bull-case conditions remain unmet because the fresh evidence does not show two quarters of full redemptions without support, a Stable BDC sector outlook, or a sustained improvement across default/stress metrics.
2026-06-02 19:29 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

prior_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:30Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-02T19:25:30Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.24,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "sonnet-4.6-via-codex-gpt",
      "prompt_hash": "958717a9ad87f835f36d7f873fbd80d643f7b74aa52bb289805b07ac583ec402",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": 0.24,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5",
      "prompt_hash": "7702c234d4ce2a9fee19ec31090d6cf9e0ddd5db",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.21
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.24
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6252126
Reuters via reuters Grade A Bank of Japan via boj Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Ministry of Finance Japan via mof Grade A registry: Japanese Ministry of Finance

Reuters on 2026-06-02 reports net short yen positions rose to 114,667 contracts in late May, the largest since July 2024, while Japan spent 11.7 trillion yen since April to support the yen; that is ne…

Reuters on 2026-06-02 reports net short yen positions rose to 114,667 contracts in late May, the largest since July 2024, while Japan spent 11.7 trillion yen since April to support the yen; that is new impact-cleared positioning and intervention evidence. BOJ on 2026-06-02 reports USD/JPY at 159.68-69 at 17:00 JST, with the pair still far from the trigger threshold of JPY < 140 in < 5 sessions but close to the intervention zone where forced policy response risk is elevated. Reuters on 2026-06-02 also reports a major Japanese bank market chief saying the BOJ should raise interest rates in June, and MOF on 2026-05-29 confirms JPY 11,734.9 billion of intervention for April 28, 2026 through May 27, 2026. Layer A scenario output under section 7.4, with layer independence under section 7.7: this is not a threshold-crossing unwind, but the carry setup is more crowded and policy-sensitive than the stale 0.21 prior reflected. Section 13 falsification criteria remain unmet: no BOJ unexpected rate hike above 25bp is cited here, no USD/JPY 1-year implied vol crossing 14% is cited here, and no single-day Nikkei drop above 5% on a carry catalyst is cited here; section 13.6 pause or slowed-normalization bull-case condition is not met by the cited evidence.
2026-05-27 02:14 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-27T02:07:21.947709+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-27T02:07:21.947709+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e620630c2643fa7d",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "b721ce53c0e953bd",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6832604
International Energy Agency via iea Grade A PBS NewsHour via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Fox News via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg CNBC Africa via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Euronews via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Al Jazeera via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

IEA May 2026 OMR (Grade A, published 2026-05-13) confirms more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in from Gulf producers with cumulative losses exceeding 1 billion barrels; global oil demand projected to co…

IEA May 2026 OMR (Grade A, published 2026-05-13) confirms more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in from Gulf producers with cumulative losses exceeding 1 billion barrels; global oil demand projected to contract 420 kb/d year-over-year in 2026 reaching 104 mb/d; the report assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume from 3Q26 contingent on a deal. PBS NewsHour (Grade B, 2026-05-25) reports Iran would surrender 440.9 kg of highly enriched uranium enriched to 60% purity; Iranian President Pezeshkian stated Iran is ready to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon. Breadth: 2 Grade-A/B rows from 2 distinct publishers (IEA Grade A, PBS NewsHour Grade B); below the typical Tier-1 floor of 3 Grade-A/B rows from distinct publishers -- no fresh Grade-A/B rows were obtained for this retry; the Grade-A IEA supply-disruption row is load-bearing for the Hormuz trigger condition and the Grade-B PBS NewsHour row is load-bearing for HEU deal terms. Grade C corroboration (cited for context only, non-load-bearing for breadth): CNBC Africa (Grade C, 2026-05-25) reports Brent crude fell 4.9% to $98.50 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, consistent with the $95 sustained threshold already reflected in entity status active; Fox News (Grade C, 2026-05-25) reports intense talks on an agreement have been ongoing in Doha and that explosions were reported at Bandar Abbas and coastal areas near the strait with causes remaining unknown; Euronews (Grade C, 2026-05-25) corroborates a high-level Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf arrived in Doha for talks addressing issues related to the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium; Al Jazeera (Grade C, 2026-05-25) quotes Rubio as calling the US proposal a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait and quotes Iran MFA spokesman Baghaei cautioning this does not mean that the signing of an agreement is imminent. Layer A scenario-output framing per paper section 7.4; no Layer B or C numbers invoked. Falsification criteria (paper section 13): sustained Hormuz traffic restoration above 70% AND Brent below $75 for more than 3 months AND ceasefire holding more than 6 months -- none crossed. Section 13.6 bull-case condition (c) requires Hormuz partial reopening AND sustained Brent below $85 -- Brent at $98.50 (Grade C, CNBC Africa) far above $85; fewer than 4 of 5 bull-case conditions met; downgrade not warranted. Evidence trajectory: deal talks advancing in Doha but MOU unsigned as of 2026-05-25; consistent with evidence_added rather than status_change or prior_change. Prior remains at p_max 0.45, status active.
2026-05-26 20:41 UTC

taiwan (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6852590
American Enterprise Institute via reuters Grade A registry: Reuters American Enterprise Institute via reuters Grade A registry: Reuters Taipei Times via reuters Grade A registry: Reuters Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A

Taiwan MND May 26, 2026 (Grade A, in pack): 29 PLA aircraft sorties, 24 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ -- highest single-day count…

Taiwan MND May 26, 2026 (Grade A, in pack): 29 PLA aircraft sorties, 24 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ -- highest single-day count in the current pack period on a non-anniversary day; Taiwan MND issued no rehearsal-of-assault designation. AEI May 22, 2026 (Grade B): Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council confirmed PRC deployed at least 200 J-6W drones to six bases near the Taiwan Strait; these aircraft can 'directly fly into targets, similar to cruise missiles, and overwhelm air defenses through mass attacks'; on May 18 a PLA Navy Air Force aircraft issued warnings to a Taiwanese aircraft in Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ and a nearby USAF aircraft intervened. AEI May 15, 2026 (Grade B): IC assessed in 2026 that 'the PRC lacks a solid deadline for invasion and will likely not invade Taiwan in 2027' -- ODNI language not hardened, section 13 raise criterion unmet. Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 (May 29-31) is upcoming; China's Defense Minister Dong Jun's participation remains unconfirmed per Taipei Times May 26, consistent with the prior-year pattern of PRC disengagement from Western-led multilateral defense fora. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim; section 7.7 layer independence preserved. Section 13 falsification criteria for a raise remain unmet: ODNI language did not harden; Liaoning constitutes 1 carrier, not meeting the greater-than-2-carrier-group plus greater-than-100k-troop-equivalent threshold; Taiwan MND issued no rehearsal-of-assault declaration; the May 26 sortie spike represents continued gray-zone coercion within established post-summit pattern, not a kinetic threshold crossing. Evidence accumulation; prior holds at 0.09; status remains quiet.
2026-05-26 20:41 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6852591
Fortune via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Fortune via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Bloomberg via bloomberg Grade A CNBC via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Fortune (May 26, 2026; Grade B; new_upload_0) reports Iran's FM denounced US military strikes as a sign of 'bad faith and unreliability' and declared 'The Islamic Republic of Iran will leave no act of…

Fortune (May 26, 2026; Grade B; new_upload_0) reports Iran's FM denounced US military strikes as a sign of 'bad faith and unreliability' and declared 'The Islamic Republic of Iran will leave no act of aggression unanswered,' warning Washington would bear responsibility for all consequences -- confirming ceasefire breakdown risk on the same day as diplomatic progress claims. Fortune (May 26, 2026; Grade B; uuid c3893e79) confirms Brent at $100.20/barrel as of 9:15 a.m. ET, above the $95 threshold_definition sustained prong, rebounding after fresh US military strikes overnight against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg (May 26, 2026; Grade B via secondary-cited-primary; HTTP 403; uuid eb0179b2) confirms US and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz overnight while both sides tout progress toward an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with talks set to continue for several more days. CNBC (May 26, 2026; Grade B via secondary-cited-primary; HTTP 403; uuid 6b23e52a) reports July Brent crude futures gained 2% to $98.26/barrel in Asia trading and oil touched $100 again on Tuesday morning following the US strikes. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim about the underlying event. Prior remains at p_max 0.45; no prior or status change proposed; this is evidence accumulation reflecting fresh May 26 kinetic exchanges and Iran FM retaliation warning, reinforcing continued active status. Falsification section 13: Hormuz traffic restoration above 70% -- NOT MET (uuid eb0179b2 quote confirms an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had not been reached as of May 26 and talks were set to continue for several more days; no cited quote describes restored Hormuz transit at any level); Brent below $75 for more than 3 months -- NOT MET (Brent $100.20 per uuid c3893e79 quote, well above the section 13 deactivation criterion); ceasefire holding more than 6 months -- NOT MET (uuid 7def76a0 and uuid eb0179b2 quotes confirm active US military strikes and Iran FM retaliation warning on May 26, 2026; no conflict onset date is asserted from quoted evidence; cited quotes establish active kinetic conflict as of May 26 without fixing a start date). Bull-case section 13.6(c): Hormuz partial reopening AND sustained Brent below $85 -- NOT MET (Brent $100.20 per uuid c3893e79 quote; uuid eb0179b2 quote confirms Hormuz-reopening deal not yet reached); section 13.6(e): HY CDX / MOVE / VIX / JPY basis return to normal -- NOT MET (no normalization signal in fetched material). Fewer than 4 of 5 section 13.6 conditions met; prior unchanged at p_max 0.45.
2026-05-26 20:41 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6852591
US Treasury Department (TBAC) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED BIS Quarterly Review, March 2026 via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve Bank of New York data) via fred Grade A registry: FRED sofrrate.com (aggregating Federal Reserve and NY Fed data) via fred Grade A registry: FRED Yahoo Finance (ICE BofAML MOVE Index) via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

TBAC May 2026 charge (Grade A, US Treasury) documents OFR estimates that 45% of average daily Treasury repo volume was already centrally cleared in the first 8 months of 2025; TBAC flags two significa…

TBAC May 2026 charge (Grade A, US Treasury) documents OFR estimates that 45% of average daily Treasury repo volume was already centrally cleared in the first 8 months of 2025; TBAC flags two significant scoping issues -- inter-affiliate exemptions and extraterritorial treatment for non-US participants -- and states these challenges 'could result in a clearing market that will not be available to all participants in all regions by the SEC deadline,' adding a new official-sector warning about incomplete readiness while confirming no formal extension of the December 31, 2026 (cash) or June 30, 2027 (repo) compliance dates. NY Fed desk operations (May 21, 2026, Grade A) quote overnight full-allotment repo at $3,000,000 submitted and accepted at stop-out rate 3.75% with ON RRP at $3,281,000,000 submitted and accepted from 9 counterparties at 3.50%; the release contains no SRF utilization figure and no language of stress, dysfunction, or strain. BIS Quarterly Review March 2026 (Grade A) adds primary-source corroboration that many hedge funds domiciled in the Cayman Islands hold US Treasuries for the cash-futures basis trade but are owned or financed by US entities, confirming the cross-border transmission channel at structural level. SOFR at 3.55% (sofrrate.com May 26, 2026, pack uuid d6ecdceb-45b8-4170-9045-5cbc9b780520) against IORB at 3.65% (sofrrate.com May 21, 2026, pack uuid d43b9e15-06ff-4884-9594-a214a31e49d7) keeps the SOFR-IORB spread negative and well below the operator-set threshold of +25 basis points. MOVE at 81.53 (Yahoo Finance May 22, 2026 close, pack uuid 9f62285e-88b6-4766-ae2d-9d90e8c8242e) remains well below the section 13 falsification threshold of 130 for five or more consecutive sessions. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4 -- not a probability claim. Falsification: section 13 criteria -- MOVE above 130 for five or more consecutive sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone formally delayed past December 31, 2026 (cash) or June 30, 2027 (repo) -- remain uncrossed; TBAC warns of potential incomplete coverage but compliance dates are unchanged; evidence accumulation only, prior 0.12 and status quiet unchanged.
2026-05-26 20:41 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0.0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-05-26T20:41:19Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6852591
CoinDesk via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg CoinGecko via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Circle (USDC Issuer) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR

CoinDesk (Grade B, 2026-05-26, new_upload_0): total stablecoin market capitalization reached a record $322 billion, surpassing the FX reserves of 95 nations -- market scale expansion with no de-peg si…

CoinDesk (Grade B, 2026-05-26, new_upload_0): total stablecoin market capitalization reached a record $322 billion, surpassing the FX reserves of 95 nations -- market scale expansion with no de-peg signal on today's date. CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-05-26, new_upload_1): USDT at $0.9988 USD with 24h change 0.0% and market cap $189,406,299,730 -- no de-peg event observed, USDT well above the USDT < $0.97 for > 1 hour threshold. Circle USDC Issuer (Grade A primary, 2026-05-21, new_upload_2): USDC confirmed always redeemable 1:1 for US dollars, monthly Big Four accounting firm assurance confirms reserves exceed circulating supply -- no reserve gap. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification section 13: no sustained (>72h) >5% peg break for any top-3 stablecoin (USDT at $0.9988 per new_upload_1, 2026-05-26); USDC reserve confirmed 1:1 backed per new_upload_2 (2026-05-21) -- the peg-break leg of the load-bearing threshold condition is not crossed; evidence accumulation reinforcing existing prior 0.05, status quiet affirmed.
2026-05-26 08:39 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "e67620bc794dd338",
  "specialist_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
  "step": 1,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "e67620bc794dd338",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.21,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

6895899
TradingEconomics via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg TradingEconomics via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg ING Think via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg exchange-rates.org via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

USD/JPY at 158.9520 on May 26, 2026 (TradingEconomics, Grade C, new_upload_0), with the yen holding near 159 as US military operations in southern Iran and ongoing peace negotiations kept investors ca…

USD/JPY at 158.9520 on May 26, 2026 (TradingEconomics, Grade C, new_upload_0), with the yen holding near 159 as US military operations in southern Iran and ongoing peace negotiations kept investors cautious; the spot rate remains far above the 140-in-5-sessions trigger threshold with carry incentive intact. Japan 10-year JGB yield at 2.71% on May 26, up 0.01pp on the session, up 0.23pp on the month, and up 1.24pp year-over-year (TradingEconomics, Grade C, new_upload_1); no directional trajectory claim is made beyond this session/month/YoY snapshot. ING Think (Grade B, new_upload_2) maintains a 50bp total BOJ hike call for 2026 -- a June hike and another hike in Q4 -- supported by Japan Q1 2026 GDP of +0.5% QoQ seasonally adjusted, beating the 0.4% consensus; this confirms ongoing BOJ normalization without any pause or slowed-normalization signal. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Section 13 falsification criteria remain unmet: no BOJ rate hike exceeding 25bp has occurred; no single-day Nikkei decline exceeding 5% on a carry catalyst observed; USD/JPY implied vol not confirmed above the 14% threshold. Section 13.6 condition (d) -- BOJ communicates pause or slowed normalization -- is not met; ING maintains June hike as base case; USD/JPY range-bound near 159 and moving away from the 140 threshold; evidence accumulation, no state change warranted.