Forecast log — whenwecrash.com

2026-06-11 17:33 UTC

vix (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:18:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.62
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.62
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5473158
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 211921a2-2505-4435-9e1d-fa1078e76b89; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:32 UTC

move_index (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T20:31:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 73.9463
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 73.9463
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5473211
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 700c8721-129f-49d4-8982-08897e991ac4; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:16 UTC

cre_debt_wall (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T17:16:38.411698+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T17:14:27.424106+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "codex_exec_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "codex_exec_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.65,
  "display_value": "$875B"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5474161
Trepp via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg CRED iQ via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg FDIC via fdic Grade A registry: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Reserve Board via federalreserve Grade A

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-10) reports the CMBS special servicing rate decreased by 51 basis points in May to 10.86%, with office down 91 basis points to 16.75% and multifamily down 57 basis points to 8.…

Trepp (Grade B, 2026-06-10) reports the CMBS special servicing rate decreased by 51 basis points in May to 10.86%, with office down 91 basis points to 16.75% and multifamily down 57 basis points to 8.51%. CRED iQ (Grade B, 2026-06-05) reports May 2026 top-25 MSA CMBS distress at 12.7%, up from 12.2% in June 2025, with 17 of 25 markets increasing year over year. FDIC (Grade A, 2026-05-27) reports non-owner-occupied CRE PDNA for banks above $250 billion declined for the sixth consecutive quarter to 3.40%, while the Federal Reserve Board (Grade A, 2026-05-08) says a large volume of CRE debt matures over the coming year and forced sales could pressure CRE prices. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim. Section 13 raise criteria are not met because the cited CRED iQ distress evidence remains below the 15% structural distress threshold, no cited evidence establishes MBA overall delinquency above 5%, no cited FAU bank-count row crosses 60 banks, and no Top-30 CRE-concentrated issuer failure is evidenced; section 13.6 de-load is not met because the cited evidence is mixed and still elevated rather than showing sustained normalized CRE refinancing conditions. Evidence_added with no current_state shift from 0.65.
2026-06-11 17:08 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T17:03:37.619113+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T17:02:21Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai_via_codex_A",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f747226b351314a5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and State Street Investment Management rows support the cited dates and numeric claims, are fresh for an amplifier, and the Layer A language is framed as scenario output rather than probability. No state shift is proposed, so magnitude and framework coherence are consistent with evidence_added.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "b4eefc9297938bc7",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All five checks pass. Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload for an amplifier evidence_added action; Check 2 numeric and date claims are supported by State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and State Street Investment Management rows within the amplifier freshness window. Check 3 keeps Layer A as scenario output, not a probability claim, references section 13 and section 13.6 without prohibited phrases or layer arithmetic; Checks 4 and 5 are coherent because no magnitude/state shift is proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5474656
State Street SSGA via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global Investment Company Institute (ICI) via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global State Street Investment Management via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

State Street SSGA (2026-06-11, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 10 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.80%, Apple at 6.86%, Microsoft at 4.73%, and information technology at 36.99%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-10, G…

State Street SSGA (2026-06-11, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 10 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.80%, Apple at 6.86%, Microsoft at 4.73%, and information technology at 36.99%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-10, Grade A) reports IVV net assets of $804,882,368,587 and information technology exposure of 36.88%. ICI (2026-06-09, Grade A/B) reports ETF shares issued exceeded shares redeemed by $61.28 billion for the week ended June 3, 2026, and State Street Investment Management (2026-05-29, Grade B) reports equity ETF flows of 119,251 in its table and says US, global, and international-developed ETFs captured 96% of all inflows. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim: mechanical index concentration remains the visible concentration channel, while the flow rows do not confirm a forced-unwind channel; amplification is conditional, not automatic. Section 13 falsification is not newly escalated by these rows because no source-published Magnificent 7 aggregate breach above the framework threshold, no ETF redemption stress, and no vol-targeted fund deleveraging event appears in the fetched evidence. Section 13.6 bull-case downshift conditions are not established because the fetched evidence does not show the required earnings-guidance persistence and volatility-regime normalization combination; evidence_added with no state shift is warranted.
2026-06-11 16:51 UTC

equity_valuation (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric accepted_value; evidence_added only",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:48:47.229001Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T16:46:47.347465Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Proposal mode Check 1 passes for amplifier/equity_valuation with evidence_added and empty new_value. Check 2 numeric and date claims match the cited Multpl, FRED, FactSet, Damodaran, and IMF quotes, with fresh Grade A/B material. Check 3 paper anchors are in the hash file and the reasoning uses section 7.4 scenario-output framing plus the section 7.3 n=1 caveat without arithmetic layer combination; no magnitude or coherence issue is apparent for an evidence_added no-state-shift proposal.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. The ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value, and the numeric/date claims in the reasoning are supported by the Multpl 2026-06-10 CAPE 40.87 row, FRED 2026-06-10 S\u0026P 500 row, Damodaran June 1 ERP 4.18% row, and FactSet June 5 forward P/E and guidance row. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 scenario-output framing is explicit, section 7.3 CAPE \u003e=40 carries the n=1 caveat, and no Layer A/B/C arithmetic or prohibited probability language appears.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5475698
Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) via multpl Grade A registry: Multpl FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC via fred Grade A registry: FRED FactSet Research Systems Inc. via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Aswath Damodaran / NYU Stern via fred Grade A registry: FRED International Monetary Fund via imf Grade A

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.87 with published_at 2026-06-10, still above the regime-defining 40 …

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.87 with published_at 2026-06-10, still above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999) listed in the same row. FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC reports 2026-06-10: 7,266.99, while Damodaran / NYU Stern reports Implied ERP on June 1, 2026 = 4.18% with a 4.44% US Treasury rate, so the section 13 ERP-compression falsification condition is not met. Because CAPE remains above 40, the section 7.3 n=1 historical analog caveat applies; this proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing per section 7.4 and does not convert that analog into an independent-event probability. FactSet Research Systems Inc. reports the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.1 and that 84% (72 out of 86) of oil-citing S&P 500 companies with 2026 annual EPS guidance increased or maintained guidance, so section 13.6 bull-case de-loading is also not established. Section 13 falsification criteria are not newly satisfied by the cited evidence: the cited rows do not demonstrate CAPE crossing 45 for six months, broader-market P/E expansion independent of AI, or ERP compression below 1.5%; current_state remains 0.99 and evidence_added with no state shift is appropriate.
2026-06-11 16:32 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "validator_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T15:50:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T15:50:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9d9064b0bc52dd0e",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "9b3e51a6699be7dd",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet",
  "threshold_definition": "USDT \u003c $0.97 for \u003e 1 hour"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5476785
CoinGecko via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg DefiLlama via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Circle (USDC Issuer) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Bank for International Settlements via bis Grade A

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_1) show USDT and USDC close to 1.00, including CoinGecko prints of tether usd 0.998904 and usd-coin usd 0.9…

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-11, new_upload_1) show USDT and USDC close to 1.00, including CoinGecko prints of tether usd 0.998904 and usd-coin usd 0.999779, and DefiLlama prints of Tether USDT price 0.9989785723418749 and USD Coin USDC price 0.9998452333387212. Circle (Grade A/B issuer disclosure, 2026-06-08, new_upload_2) says USDC is always redeemable 1:1 and gives reserve components as 20.15 + 11.47 + 0.69 + 43.82. Bank for International Settlements (Grade A, 2026-06-01, new_upload_3) reports a structural Treasury-bill channel from stablecoin flows, including 0.71 basis points on impact and about 4 basis points within 10 days, but not an active de-peg event. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Section 13 stablecoin updating is treated broadly: the cited evidence supports stable reserve disclosure, redemption availability, no observed de-peg stress in the cited price snapshots, and no cited bill-market stress from an active de-peg event. Evidence accumulation supports current_prior 0.05 and status quiet with no state change.

2026-06-11 16:10 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "accept_count": 2,
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "not_applicable",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:07:36.565691Z",
  "vote_count": 2,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Proposal-mode Check 1 passes for trigger/evidence_added with empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and validation_team as a dict. Check 2 passes because the cited Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Board rows are Grade A primary sources dated June 10-11, 2026, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary match raw_payload.quote. Check 3 passes because the proposal uses section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing, cites section 13 falsification criteria as framework constants, and makes no Layer B/C arithmetic combination or prohibited probability claim.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value and dict validation_team; Check 2 quote-fidelity is satisfied because the NY Fed and Federal Reserve Board numeric/date claims are limited to raw_payload.quote text, with fresh Grade A official rows. Check 3 is satisfied because section 7.4 and section 13 anchors exist, Layer A is framed as scenario output, and no Layer B/C arithmetic or prohibited phrase appears.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": null
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet",
  "threshold_definition": "SOFR-IORB \u003e 25 bps"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5478143

Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED

This corrected proposal relies only on the stored raw_payload.quote text in the three cited evidence rows and does not assert that the cited live endpoints showed the same rows at validator review time. The stored NY Fed repo evidence quote contains operationDate 2026-06-11, operationType Repo, operationMethod Full Allotment, term Overnight, releaseTime 08:15, totalAmtSubmitted 0, totalAmtAccepted 0, and minimumBidRate 3.75. The stored SOFR quote contains effectiveDate 2026-06-10, percentRate 3.59, and volumeInBillions 3023, while the stored Federal Reserve Board PRATES quote contains Value 3.65, ForDate 06/11/2026, EffectiveDate 12/11/2025, and LastUpdated 06/10/2026; evaluated against the entity threshold_definition SOFR-IORB > 25 bps, these stored comparator quotes do not require a state-change claim. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Falsification criteria per section 13 remain the relevant raise tests: MOVE above 130 for five or more sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delay past Dec 2026 / Jun 2027. This is evidence accumulation only, with no current live-source state claim and no state-change claim in this proposal.

2026-06-11 15:45 UTC

ai_cyber (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

prior_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T15:42:17Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T15:41:22Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ec8fab11d60c1eb0",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5c88ff6211362b4b",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.14,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.16
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5479656
CISA via cisa Grade A registry: Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Anthropic via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

CISA (Grade A, 2026-06-10; new_upload_0) issued BOD 26-04 and explicitly tied AI use by cyber threat actors to a narrower defender reaction window between patch release and possible exploitation. Wall…

CISA (Grade A, 2026-06-10; new_upload_0) issued BOD 26-04 and explicitly tied AI use by cyber threat actors to a narrower defender reaction window between patch release and possible exploitation. Wall Street Journal (Grade B, 2026-06-10; new_upload_1) reports Visa's Project Glasswing testing showed AI can construct attack chains, shifting the burden toward machine-speed validation, prioritization, and fixing. Anthropic (Grade B, 2026-06-09; new_upload_2) launched Claude Mythos 5 for selected cyberdefenders and infrastructure providers through Project Glasswing, with cyber safeguards lifted in some areas. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification per section 13 remains unmet: no confirmed systemic AI service outage, no SIC 6000-series Item 1.05 filing with disclosed loss above the operator materiality threshold, and no CISA or joint advisory naming an AI-enabled vector with cross-firm financial transmission. The fresh Grade A official directive plus new Grade B operational evidence show trajectory acceleration, but below threshold; raise current_prior from 0.14 to 0.16 while keeping status quiet.
2026-06-11 15:05 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_magnitude",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T18:03:41.437423+03:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T18:02:16.260274+03:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "dd25f1038bbab9f2",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "a77cfd65de83b957",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.27,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5482003
Bank of Japan via boj Grade A The Business Times / Bloomberg via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Reuters via Daily Sabah via reuters Grade A registry: Reuters

Bank of Japan June 11 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.50-51 at 17:00 JST after 160.52-54 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 - 160.54 range. The Business Times / Bloomberg June 11 report said overnight …

Bank of Japan June 11 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.50-51 at 17:00 JST after 160.52-54 at 9:00 JST, with a 160.43 - 160.54 range. The Business Times / Bloomberg June 11 report said overnight index swaps showed the chance of a hike briefly fell to as low as about 73 per cent before almost fully pricing it in again, while the yen was at 160.5 per US dollar and a 25-basis-point hike still looked all but certain. Reuters via Daily Sabah Jun 10, 2026 reported Governor Ueda would skip the upcoming June 15-16 policy meeting while hospitalized for about two weeks, working remotely and expected to attend the July 30 to 31 meeting. Layer A scenario-output framing under section 7.4, with layer independence under section 7.7: the cited rows are material but confirmatory, supporting evidence_added rather than a state change. Section 13 falsification and section 13.6 bull-case conditions are not met by the cited evidence: the rows do not show an unexpected BOJ rate hike, an implied-volatility breach, a Nikkei carry-shock event, or a BOJ communication of pause or slowed normalization.
2026-06-11 13:36 UTC

ai_capex (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:33:17.201832+03:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T16:33:17.201819+03:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.3,
  "status": "rising"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5487350
Oracle Investor Relations via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Oracle Investor Relations via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Amazon Form 8-K via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Amazon Free Writing Prospectus via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Business Insider via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Sherwood News via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

Business Insider and Sherwood News on 2026-06-11 add fresh market-facing evidence that the AI capex cycle is still escalating: Goldman sees roughly $1.1 trillion of 2027 hyperscaler capex versus rough…

Business Insider and Sherwood News on 2026-06-11 add fresh market-facing evidence that the AI capex cycle is still escalating: Goldman sees roughly $1.1 trillion of 2027 hyperscaler capex versus roughly $920 billion expected by Wall Street, while Oracle's reported capex and next-year net capex guide remained a live investor concern. Oracle Investor Relations on 2026-06-10 provides primary issuer corroboration of the funding channel: negative free cash flow, large debt and equity raises in FY 2026, and about $40 billion of expected FY 2027 financing. Amazon's 2026-06-10 Form 8-K and 2026-06-08 free writing prospectus add primary evidence of incremental liquidity and long-duration bond issuance. Layer A scenario-output framing (section 7.4): the evidence strengthens the capex-to-cash-flow and credit-market transmission chain, but it does not show a top-7 hyperscaler capex cut or a status transition. Falsification per section 13: the trigger threshold remains a greater than 25% capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler; these rows show continued capex escalation and financing strain, not a cut crossing that threshold.
2026-06-11 13:36 UTC

iran_hormuz (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:33:15.412401+03:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T16:33:15.412387+03:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5487352
Reuters via reuters Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Atlantic Council via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg IEA via iea Grade A registry: International Energy Agency

Reuters on 2026-06-11 (Grade B) reports renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and Tehran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, while a second Reuters row the same day reports U.S. attacks across Iran after the A…

Reuters on 2026-06-11 (Grade B) reports renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and Tehran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, while a second Reuters row the same day reports U.S. attacks across Iran after the Apache incident near Hormuz. Reuters on 2026-06-10 (Grade B) adds a U.S. official transit claim, Atlantic Council on 2026-06-09 (Grade B) says traffic is rising but no reopening deal exists, and IEA on 2026-06-10 (Grade A) updates its shipping monitor while warning that dark vessels and AIS distortion limit traffic measurement. Layer A scenario-output framing, not a probability claim; threshold_definition is Brent > $95 sustained >= 30 trading days, OR kinetic Hormuz incident. Falsification check under section 13 is not met: sustained Hormuz traffic restoration above 70%, Brent below $75 for more than 3 months, and a ceasefire holding more than 6 months are not established in the fetched record. The trigger is already active at current_prior 0.45, so this is evidence accumulation rather than a prior or status change.
2026-06-10 11:48 UTC

brent_curve (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_curve",
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_curve",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:51Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "43f9e200-0044-44fc-be18-2db2b5fa6950",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.73
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.73
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5580231
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 43f9e200-0044-44fc-be18-2db2b5fa6950; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 43f9e200-0044-44fc-be18-2db2b5fa6950; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-10 11:46 UTC

jgb_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "jgb_10y",
    "tsy_auction_tail"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "jgb_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T09:51:08Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "871e7711-0126-48ae-a67a-32e1de9ee43b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.686
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.686
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5580377
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 871e7711-0126-48ae-a67a-32e1de9ee43b; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 871e7711-0126-48ae-a67a-32e1de9ee43b; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-10 11:43 UTC

treasury_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "treasury_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-09T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "43ec78a9-6f45-40c9-9fe9-c169bb6c3a0f",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.53
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.53
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5580536
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 43ec78a9-6f45-40c9-9fe9-c169bb6c3a0f; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 43ec78a9-6f45-40c9-9fe9-c169bb6c3a0f; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-10 11:40 UTC

brent_spot (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_spot",
    "hy_oas"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_spot",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T11:29:58Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "c327b54f-31b8-404e-a9b1-411d030adeab",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.95
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.95
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5580707
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run c327b54f-31b8-404e-a9b1-411d030adeab; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run c327b54f-31b8-404e-a9b1-411d030adeab; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-10 11:39 UTC

vix (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix",
    "vix_inversion"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T11:24:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "2bc6f2ac-0bbc-46a7-9562-d080ffc9812e",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.37
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 21.37
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5580788
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 2bc6f2ac-0bbc-46a7-9562-d080ffc9812e; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 2bc6f2ac-0bbc-46a7-9562-d080ffc9812e; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-10 11:25 UTC

taiwan (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T11:23:41.681693+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T11:23:41.681685+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-as-claude-sonnet-4-6",
      "prompt_hash": "45452a5adec21f98ba6b8cb747c471bbb0c34d82",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "e9a3b6f2597e0074c9b16b8a1788523f8a2bd7d2",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5581615
Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via taiwan_mnd Grade A

Taiwan MND Jun. 10, 2026 (Grade A) reported 6 PLAN ships and 10 official ships with no PLA aircraft detected; Taiwan MND Jun. 9, 2026 (Grade A) reported 1 PLA aircraft sortie, 6 PLAN ships and 9 offic…

Taiwan MND Jun. 10, 2026 (Grade A) reported 6 PLAN ships and 10 official ships with no PLA aircraft detected; Taiwan MND Jun. 9, 2026 (Grade A) reported 1 PLA aircraft sortie, 6 PLAN ships and 9 official ships, with 1 out of 1 sortie entering Taiwan's southeastern ADIZ. Reuters Jun. 10, 2026 (Grade B) reported Taiwan fired its new mobile HIMARS rocket system in a drill simulating an attack on an invading Chinese force and that this was the first west-coast firing in Taichung. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4; not a probability claim; section 7.7 layer independence preserved. Section 13 raise criteria remain unmet: no ODNI or DIA language hardening was fetched, no >2 carrier group plus >100k troop-equivalent exercise was shown, and Taiwan MND did not declare a rehearsal-of-assault; the threshold definition, Any kinetic cross-strait incident, was not crossed. Fresh evidence accumulation only; current prior and quiet status should remain unchanged.
2026-06-10 11:12 UTC

rates_fiscal (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "n/a",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T10:52:40.604348+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T10:52:40.604348+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5582385
BLS CPI Release Schedule via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates via fred Grade A registry: FRED TreasuryDirect Auction Results via fred Grade A registry: FRED Investing.com via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg BEA Personal Income and Outlays via fred Grade A registry: FRED BLS CPI Release via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BLS CPI Release Schedule (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the May 2026 CPI release scheduled for Jun. 10, 2026 at 08:30 AM, while the latest fetched BLS C…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BLS CPI Release Schedule (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the May 2026 CPI release scheduled for Jun. 10, 2026 at 08:30 AM, while the latest fetched BLS CPI Release (Grade A, 2026-05-12) still showed CPI-U at 3.8 percent and BEA Personal Income and Outlays (Grade A, 2026-05-28) showed PCE at 3.8 percent. Federal Reserve H.15 (Grade A, 2026-06-09) showed effective fed funds at 3.62, 10-year Treasury at 4.56, and 5-year TIPS at 1.82, while TreasuryDirect Auction Results (Grade A, 2026-06-09) showed a 3-Year Note high yield of 4.192% and bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64 rather than 2y/5y/10y/30y auction-tail stress evidence. Investing.com (Grade C, 2026-06-09) showed MOVE at 77.03, far below the active MOVE condition. Section 13 falsification criteria are mixed: CPI normalization, defined as YoY below 3.0% for 2 consecutive quarterly readings, is NOT met; auction stress normalization, defined as tail below 2.0 bp on 3 consecutive 2y/5y/10y/30y auctions, is NOT established; MOVE normalization, defined as below 110 for 30 calendar days, is NOT established by a single 77.03 row; Fed policy headroom restored, defined as Fed funds below 4.0% OR 2+ cuts signaled, IS met by the 3.62 effective fed funds row. The evidence updates the monitoring set but remains sub-active and mixed, so the correct action is evidence_added with current_prior and status unchanged.
2026-06-10 11:08 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T10:52:40.653658+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T10:52:40.653658+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5582621
SIFMA via sifma Grade A registry: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Federal Reserve H.15 via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve H.4.1 via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve New Security Issues via fred Grade A registry: FRED OECD via oecd Grade A registry: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Layer A scenario output (section 7.4), not a probability claim. SIFMA (June 2, 2026, Grade A) reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, so the corp-IG-only display t…

Layer A scenario output (section 7.4), not a probability claim. SIFMA (June 2, 2026, Grade A) reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, so the corp-IG-only display text should read corp IG $1.2T YTD 2026 (SIFMA). Federal Reserve H.15 (June 9, 2026, Grade A) reports Jun 8 Treasury constant maturities at 10-year 4.56 and 30-year 5.03, while Federal Reserve H.4.1 (June 4, 2026, Grade A) shows U.S. Treasury securities holdings All 4,469,293 with weekly changes All +7,392. Federal Reserve New Security Issues (May 29, 2026, Grade A) shows corporate bonds at 236,187 in Apr 2026 after 326,296 in Mar 2026, and OECD (March 4, 2026, Grade A) states projected hyperscaler capex of USD 4.1 trillion between 2026 and 2030, preserving the structural supply channel. Falsification check (section 13): the cited SIFMA corporate issuance figure remains far below the approximately $15T total-supply criterion; this run cites no row showing MOVE at 130 for 5 or more sessions and no row showing a hyperscaler single-tranche event above $30B, so evidence accumulation supports keeping current_state at 0.55 with no directional shift.
2026-06-10 10:48 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode: schema fits an amplifier evidence_added proposal, cited State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows are fresh and contain the quoted dates and numeric inputs. Paper discipline is adequate because the Layer A language is framed as scenario output, not a probability claim, and section 13 and section 13.6 are used as falsification/downshift references without a state move.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is valid for amplifier concentration evidence_added, with matching evidence UUIDs and a dict validation_team. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows with quoted numeric/date anchors; the rows update holdings, sector weights, and ETF flow inputs. Check 3 paper discipline is adequate because Layer A is framed as scenario output, not a probability claim, and section 13 and section 13.6 are used without a state downgrade or arithmetic layer combination.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.99
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5583842
State Street SSGA via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global Investment Company Institute (ICI) via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global FactSet via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

State Street SSGA (2026-06-10, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 08 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.97%, Apple at 6.96%, Microsoft at 4.81%, and information technology at 37.85%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-09, G…

State Street SSGA (2026-06-10, Grade A) lists SPY Jun 08 holdings with NVIDIA at 7.97%, Apple at 6.96%, Microsoft at 4.81%, and information technology at 37.85%, while BlackRock iShares (2026-06-09, Grade A) reports IVV net assets of $827,892,608,763 and information technology exposure of 37.75%. ICI (2026-06-09, Grade A/B) reports ETF shares issued exceeded shares redeemed by $61.28 billion for the week ended June 3, 2026, and FactSet (2026-06-03, Grade B) reports U.S.-listed ETF assets of $15.7 trillion with May inflows of $199.4 billion. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim: mechanical index concentration remains the visible concentration channel, while the flow rows do not confirm a forced-unwind channel. Section 13 falsification is not newly escalated by these rows because no source-published Magnificent 7 aggregate breach above the framework threshold, no ETF redemption stress, and no vol-targeted fund deleveraging event appears in the fetched evidence. Section 13.6 bull-case downshift conditions are not established because the fetched evidence does not show the required earnings-guidance persistence and volatility-regime normalization combination; evidence_added with no state shift is warranted.
2026-06-10 10:34 UTC

equity_valuation (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric accepted_value; evidence_added only",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T10:32:12.161148+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T10:26:34.690267+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "87696f0726ac06ea",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f197d5458c14d2a0",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "last_checked_at": "2026-06-08T10:10:15.494200",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5584674
Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) via multpl Grade A registry: Multpl FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC via fred Grade A registry: FRED Aswath Damodaran / NYU Stern via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Shiller CAPE at 41.54 with published_at 2026-06-09, still above the regime-defining 40 anchor and…

Fresh evidence updates the valuation read without warranting a numeric state shift: Multpl.com reports Shiller CAPE at 41.54 with published_at 2026-06-09, still above the regime-defining 40 anchor and below the 44.19 Dec 1999 maximum listed in the same row. FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices reports the S&P 500 at 7,386.65 on 2026-06-09, while Damodaran / NYU Stern reports implied ERP at 4.18% on June 1, 2026 with a 4.44% US Treasury rate, so the section 13 ERP-compression falsification condition is not met. Because CAPE remains above 40, the section 7.3 n=1 historical analog caveat applies; this proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing per section 7.4 and does not convert that analog into an independent-event probability. Section 13 falsification criteria are not newly satisfied by the cited evidence: the cited rows do not demonstrate CAPE crossing 45 for six months, broader-market P/E expansion independent of AI, or ERP compression below 1.5%. Section 13.6 bull-case de-loading is also not established by the cited evidence; current_state remains 0.99 and evidence_added with no state shift is appropriate.

2026-06-10 10:23 UTC

stablecoin (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "routine evidence_added; no numeric accepted_value",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T10:12:18Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T10:12:18Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A",
      "tolerance_notes": "Checks 1-5 pass for a trigger evidence_added proposal: schema/enums fit, evidence_uuids resolve, and Circle plus Bank for International Settlements provide A/B-grade support within the freshness window while CoinGecko and DefiLlama add current peg-price inputs. Reasoning uses section 7.4 Layer A framing, avoids hard-reject phrases and CCI/probability language, and proposes no magnitude move beyond evidence accumulation."
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B",
      "tolerance_notes": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits, evidence UUIDs are present, and stablecoin is Tier 3 so the CoinGecko/DefiLlama Grade C rows are allowable with Circle and BIS as Grade A support. Numeric claims in reasoning_summary trace to quoted evidence, Layer A section 7.4 framing is present without prohibited phrases, and evidence_added with no state move is plausible for quiet status."
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{
  "attempt_count": 0,
  "eligible_at": "2026-06-10 09:07:18",
  "entity_id": "stablecoin",
  "entity_type": "trigger",
  "job_id": 385,
  "job_kind": "evidence_refresh",
  "last_error": null,
  "lease_expires_at": "2026-06-10 11:39:27",
  "lease_owner": "34625d60-8d58-41de-b063-5e88395144d1",
  "lease_pid": 18608,
  "lease_pid_create_time": "1781086167.396906",
  "payload_json": null,
  "priority": 3,
  "status": "leased",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-10 10:09:27"
}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5585373

CoinGecko via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg DefiLlama via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Circle (USDC Issuer) via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Bank for International Settlements via bis Grade A

CoinGecko (Grade C, 2026-06-10, new_upload_0) and DefiLlama (Grade C, 2026-06-10, new_upload_1) show USDT and USDC close to 1.00, including CoinGecko prints of tether usd 0.99947 and usd-coin usd 0.999861, and DefiLlama prints of Tether USDT price 0.999202669861388 and USD Coin USDC price 0.9997573501500574. Circle (Grade A/B issuer disclosure, 2026-06-08, new_upload_2) says USDC is always redeemable 1:1 for US dollars and backed 100% by highly liquid cash and cash-equivalent assets, with reserve components stated as 20.15 + 11.47 + 0.69 + 43.82. Bank for International Settlements (Grade A, 2026-06-01, new_upload_3) reports a $3.5 billion stablecoin inflow lowers 3-month Treasury bill yields by 0.71 basis points on impact and up to 4 basis points within 10 days, confirming a structural Treasury-market transmission channel rather than an active de-peg event. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Falsification section 13: the fetched evidence does not show USDT < $0.97 for > 1 hour, a sustained top-3 stablecoin peg break, measurable Treasury-bill price impact from a de-peg event, money-market fund flow disruption from a de-peg event, or OCC/Treasury intervention against Tether or Circle; evidence accumulation supports current_prior 0.05 and status quiet with no state change.

2026-06-10 10:06 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T10:03:34.013603Z",
  "validation_started_at": null,
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A",
      "tolerance_notes": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": null,
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B",
      "tolerance_notes": null
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet",
  "threshold_definition": "SOFR-IORB \u003e 25 bps"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5586356
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR API quotes effectiveDate 2026-06-08, percentRate 3.63, and volumeInBillions 3115, while Federal Reserve Board PRATES quotes Value: 3.65, ForDate: 06/10/2026, and …

Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR API quotes effectiveDate 2026-06-08, percentRate 3.63, and volumeInBillions 3115, while Federal Reserve Board PRATES quotes Value: 3.65, ForDate: 06/10/2026, and LastUpdated: 06/09/2026; the operator threshold SOFR-IORB > 25 bps is not met. Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations for operationDate 2026-06-09 quote totalAmtAccepted: 2000000 and totalAmtAccepted: 101000000 across the two overnight full-allotment repo windows at minimumBidRate: 3.75, updating the SRF input without showing a utilization spike. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Falsification criteria per section 13 remain the relevant raise tests: MOVE above 130 for five or more sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delay past Dec 2026 / Jun 2027; the new evidence is evidence accumulation only, with current_prior 0.12 and status quiet unchanged.
2026-06-10 09:50 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-10T09:47:37.565662Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-10T09:45:53.880482Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "066fd8d16aa523a5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": "Accept: Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload for trigger/evidence_added with empty new_value and dict validation_team. Check 2 evidence is fresh and material: Bank of Japan June 9/10 FX rates, Reuters June 10 poll, and Japan Ministry of Finance May 29 intervention data support the numeric/date claims. Check 3 paper anchors section 7.4, section 7.7, section 13, and section 13.6 all exist in the hash file, with no arithmetic layer combination or prohibited phrase."
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "f70dc05fff44cc66",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null,
      "tolerance_notes": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. Schema and enums fit, evidence_uuids are present, BOJ, Reuters, and Japanese Ministry of Finance rows are fresh and support the numeric/date claims, and cited paper anchors section 7.4, section 7.7, section 13, and section 13.6 exist in the hash file. The evidence_added choice is magnitude-plausible because there is no state change and the cited rows are material new numeric inputs or official corroboration."
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.27,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5587322
Bank of Japan via boj Grade A Reuters via reuters Grade A Japanese Ministry of Finance via boj Grade A registry: Bank of Japan Bank of Japan via boj Grade A

Bank of Japan June 10 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.38-40 at 17:00 JST with a 160.43 - 160.25 range, following Bank of Japan June 9 official FX data at 160.19-20 at 17:00 JST; this keeps spot…

Bank of Japan June 10 official FX data showed USD/JPY at 160.38-40 at 17:00 JST with a 160.43 - 160.25 range, following Bank of Japan June 9 official FX data at 160.19-20 at 17:00 JST; this keeps spot in the intervention-pressure zone and far from the framework threshold of JPY < 140 in fewer than 5 sessions. Reuters June 10 reported that its June 2 to June 8 poll had 94% of economists, 66 of 70, expecting the BOJ policy rate to rise to 1.0% by the end of June, up from 65% in May, while the Japanese Ministry of Finance May 29 row confirms JPY 11,734.9 billion of intervention operations for April 28, 2026 through May 27, 2026. Layer A scenario output under section 7.4, with layer independence under section 7.7: the pressure stack is still live, but the new rows are confirmatory against the already-raised 0.27 prior rather than a greater-than-5pp state change. Section 13 falsification criteria remain unmet in the cited evidence: no BOJ unexpected rate hike above 25bp, no USD/JPY 1-year implied volatility crossing 14%, and no single-day Nikkei drop above 5% on a carry-related catalyst. Section 13.6 condition d, BOJ communicates pause or slowed normalization, is not met; the Reuters poll points toward continued normalization, so evidence accumulation is warranted with no state change.
2026-06-08 12:59 UTC

vix (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix",
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-08T12:43:31Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "7723beaa-c447-4770-b073-dfaa9b950e26",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 18.75
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 18.75
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5748782
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 7723beaa-c447-4770-b073-dfaa9b950e26; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 7723beaa-c447-4770-b073-dfaa9b950e26; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.