Forecast log

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "tsy_auction_tail",
    "brent_curve",
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "tsy_auction_tail",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-04T15:34:05Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "91e58f74-19be-4195-8bde-de425a1eb046",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 3
}

{
  "current_value": 2.0
}

{
  "current_value": 2.0
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "bdc_nav_discount",
    "jgb_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "bdc_nav_discount",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "2a4c3814-fea7-4749-b299-c55807a0c67c",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": -22.355556
}

{
  "current_value": -22.355556
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix",
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-08T10:24:46Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "5a5f4b7d-edd0-4390-9778-1c769adae752",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 19.73
}

{
  "current_value": 19.73
}

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T10:32:53.325911+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-08T10:32:53.325903+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ae34c806-f977-4c39-b06d-05cfe947e13e:cre_debt_wall:A",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for an evidence_added amplifier proposal. Check 2 is satisfied by MBA as Grade A primary support and Trepp as Grade B support within the CRE slow-cadence window, with CRE Daily only supplemental Grade C; the quoted CMBS 7.28 percent and banks/thrifts 1.24 percent claims are supported. Check 3 passes because section 7.4 is framed as Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim, and section 13 and section 13.6 references are used as framework thresholds rather than unsupported evidence facts.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ae34c806-f977-4c39-b06d-05cfe947e13e:cre_debt_wall:B",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-3 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added for amplifier with empty new_value, and the numeric/date claims are supported by MBA, Trepp, and CRE Daily quotes. MBA is Grade A and Trepp is Grade B, both fresh for slow-cadence cre_debt_wall, and section 7.4, section 13, and section 13.6 are valid hashed anchors. Checks 4-5 pass because there is no current_state move and the mixed delinquency evidence supports evidence_added rather than a state shift.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.65
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T10:32:53.166046+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-08T10:32:53.166035+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ae34c806-f977-4c39-b06d-05cfe947e13e:concentration:A",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload for amplifier evidence_added with empty new_value and dict validation_team. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B issuer and ICI/Reuters rows, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary match BlackRock iShares, State Street SSGA, Reuters via Investing.com, and ICI quotes. Check 3 is acceptable: Layer A is framed as scenario output, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist in the hash file, and there is no prohibited phrase or layer arithmetic.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ae34c806-f977-4c39-b06d-05cfe947e13e:concentration:B",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode: schema is valid for an amplifier evidence_added payload, evidence_uuids are present, and validation_team is a dict. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Jun 02-Jun 08 2026 rows from BlackRock iShares, State Street SSGA, Reuters via Investing.com, and ICI, with the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary matching the quoted evidence. Check 3 is acceptable because the Layer A text is framed as scenario output, not a probability claim, and section 13 and section 13.6 references are hashed anchors with no Tier-1 cut or framework downgrade proposed.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "run_uuid": "715ac23a-5f34-4b33-bffb-5b6d79803661",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T10:10:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "codex",
      "model": "gpt-5-codex",
      "raw_evidence_seen": [
        "25956a46-6285-48f0-bc99-5b19e9472ee3",
        "494ce5c7-78cb-4253-b069-399a02bd79c2",
        "143ceb89-4385-4bd9-ac15-b253443f33eb",
        "212c18fc-af93-4be9-b605-1b92515e9ed4",
        "1e943efc-32ae-461d-8e2a-d8b229b2dc56"
      ],
      "reasoning": "The proposal does not use any hard-reject phrase as a positive claim. It frames CAPE above 40 as section 7.3 single-episode evidence with the n=1 caveat, treats Layer A as scenario output rather than a probability claim, and does not arithmetically combine layers. The evidence supports evidence_added with no numeric state shift: Jun 5 CAPE 41.57 remains above 40 but below the cited Dec 1999 maximum; FactSet guidance evidence does not satisfy a bull-case downgrade gate; IMF and GMO are confirmatory rather than threshold events. Section 13 falsification criteria are discussed as not newly satisfied. Optional old_value and consensus_rule are present but not grounds for rejection under the supplied instruction.",
      "role": "Validator A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt-5",
      "model": "gpt-5-codex",
      "raw_evidence_seen": [
        "25956a46-6285-48f0-bc99-5b19e9472ee3",
        "494ce5c7-78cb-4253-b069-399a02bd79c2",
        "143ceb89-4385-4bd9-ac15-b253443f33eb",
        "212c18fc-af93-4be9-b605-1b92515e9ed4",
        "1e943efc-32ae-461d-8e2a-d8b229b2dc56"
      ],
      "reasoning": "Five checks applied. 1. No hard-reject phrase is used as an affirmative claim; the only probabilistic wording is a negation of converting the CAPE analog into such a claim. 2. Paper anchoring is adequate for this valuation evidence-added proposal: section 7.3 n=1 caveat, Layer A scenario-output framing, section 13 falsification criteria, and section 13.6 bull-case gate are all invoked where relevant. Sections 7.7, 11, 12.1, and 7.5 are not required by the specific proposal because it does not combine layers, make a conditional severity claim, rely on indicator-backtest selection, or invoke severity slope sensitivity. 3. Evidence supports the summary: Multpl shows CAPE 41.57 on Jun 5, 2026 after 42.70 on Jun 4, still above 40 and below 44.19; FactSet supports the guidance-maintained/increased statement; IMF and GMO support stretched-valuation corroboration. 4. The proposal does not claim a numeric state shift; evidence_added with old current_state 0.99 and empty new_value is consistent with the stated no-state-shift action. 5. Optional old_value and consensus_rule are present in the normalized payload and are not treated as rejection grounds per instruction.",
      "role": "Validator B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}

{}

[
  "Validator A",
  "Validator B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "run_uuid": "715ac23a-5f34-4b33-bffb-5b6d79803661",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T10:10:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "gpt",
      "model": "gpt-5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": [
        "22d76da2-cd57-46eb-8a9f-0547618786a6 CoinGecko stablecoin price snapshot: USDT 0.999263, USDC 0.999752, FDUSD 0.9976 on 2026-06-08.",
        "cf6f0dfa-fa04-460d-a6b4-935b8d14d662 DefiLlama stablecoin snapshot: USDT 0.9992537150899073, USDC 0.999694402830099, USDS 0.9994213579415154, FDUSD 0.9974659518983869 on 2026-06-08.",
        "271ed536-b24d-41d7-b9c8-3f82030d9e9f Tether International 2026-06-06 release about independent director and audit committee seat at Twenty One Capital.",
        "2e156d8a-f83f-4f53-b8bc-5b577b177e25 Chainalysis 2026-06-02 OFAC sanctions update requiring sanctions screening and transaction monitoring updates."
      ],
      "reasoning": "Passes five rubric checks. No hard-reject phrase is used as a forecast/probability claim; the phrase \u0027not a probability claim\u0027 is compliant context. The proposal is supported by the supplied evidence: CoinGecko and DefiLlama show top stablecoins near peg, Tether evidence is issuer governance rather than reserve impairment, and Chainalysis evidence is compliance monitoring rather than de-peg stress. Paper anchoring is adequate for the invoked stablecoin Layer A scenario because it states scenario output, not probability claim, and cites falsification section 13 criteria. It does not arithmetically combine layers A/B/C or make severity unconditional. Optional old_value and consensus_rule are present but not a rejection basis under the instruction.",
      "role": "Validator A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "GPT-5",
      "model": "gpt-5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": [
        "22d76da2-cd57-46eb-8a9f-0547618786a6 CoinGecko stablecoin prices: USDT 0.999263, USDC 0.999752, FDUSD 0.9976 on 2026-06-08.",
        "cf6f0dfa-fa04-460d-a6b4-935b8d14d662 DefiLlama stablecoin snapshot: USDT 0.9992537150899073, USDC 0.999694402830099, USDS 0.9994213579415154, FDUSD 0.9974659518983869 on 2026-06-08.",
        "271ed536-b24d-41d7-b9c8-3f82030d9e9f Tether International release on 2026-06-06 about Twenty One Capital board/audit committee governance follow-through.",
        "2e156d8a-f83f-4f53-b8bc-5b577b177e25 Chainalysis report on 2026-06-02 OFAC sanctions requiring stablecoin issuer sanctions-screening and monitoring updates."
      ],
      "reasoning": "Five checks passed. The proposal uses only supplied evidence, all cited evidence UUIDs are present in the bundle, and the reasoning is supported by the peg-price and issuer/compliance evidence. It contains no hard-reject phrases or probability-forecast framing. Paper-anchor handling is adequate for proposal mode: it explicitly frames Layer A as scenario output rather than a probability claim and applies section 13 falsification criteria without combining A/B/C layers arithmetically. Optional old_value and consensus_rule are present but not treated as rejection grounds per instruction. No unsupported state change is proposed; the quiet status and current_prior 0.05 are consistent with evidence showing major stablecoins close to peg and no cited intervention or contagion signal.",
      "role": "Validator B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "Validator A",
  "Validator B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T09:36:48.828980+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Schema is valid for a prior_change with non-empty evidence_uuids and dict validation_team; Check 2 is satisfied by same-day Reuters and Bank of Japan rows with Grade A/B source quality, new numeric positioning and official FX inputs, and BOJ policy guidance. Check 3 passes because section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 7.7 independence is preserved, section 13 and section 13.6 anchors exist, and no prohibited probability language or layer arithmetic appears; the 0.24 to 0.27 move is plausible and coherent for yen_carry.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. ProposalPayload schema is valid for prior_change with non-empty evidence_uuids and dict validation_team. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh June 8 Reuters and Bank of Japan rows, with Grade A/B sufficiency and literal support for the USD/JPY 160.22-23, central rate 160.35, bearish yen positions above $10 billion, and BOJ normalization guidance. Check 3 paper anchors section 7.4, section 7.7, section 13, and section 13.6 exist and are used without prohibited probability language or layer arithmetic; the 3pp move is plausible and coherent with status watching.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.24,
  "status": "watching"
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.27
}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "proposal_acceptance",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T09:07:52.289025+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-08T09:07:52.289025+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: proposal schema is valid for evidence_added with empty new_value, cited Taiwan MND, Reuters, and South China Morning Post rows are fresh for quiet Tier-1 Taiwan and support the numeric/date claims. Section 7.4 scenario-output framing and section 7.7 independence are present, section 13 raise criteria are discussed, and no prior/status move is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: schema is valid for an evidence_added trigger proposal, Taiwan MND and Reuters/SCMP rows are fresh Grade A/B material for a Tier-1 quiet trigger, and the numeric/date claims in the reasoning match the quoted evidence. Paper discipline is satisfied with section 7.4 scenario-output framing, section 7.7 independence, and section 13 raise criteria; no state move is proposed, so magnitude and coherence are acceptable.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.09,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "no numeric move",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-08T08:53:00Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-08T08:50:00Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload fields and enums fit, evidence_uuids are non-empty, and validation_team is a dict. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B evidence from Reuters on 2026-06-08 and 2026-06-05, Associated Press on 2026-06-07, plus IEA and Bloomberg anchors within the Tier-1 aging window. Check 3 passes because the proposal uses Layer A scenario-output framing, avoids hard-reject phrases and CCI-as-probability language, and does not combine Layer A/B/C figures arithmetically.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "runtime_prompt_file",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: the proposal schema is valid for trigger iran_hormuz with evidence_added and non-empty evidence_uuids. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Grade A/B rows from Reuters on 2026-06-08 and 2026-06-05, Associated Press on 2026-06-07, plus IEA and Bloomberg anchors within the Tier-1 aging window; the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary are present in the cited quotes. Check 3 passes because the summary uses Layer A scenario-output framing and avoids prohibited probability language or section 7.7 arithmetic combination; no magnitude move is proposed under Check 4.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.45,
  "status": "active"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix",
    "vix_inversion",
    "brent_spot",
    "hy_oas",
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:15:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "3dc6c05c-8373-47cf-ba86-9a6157db4131",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 5
}

{
  "current_value": 21.51
}

{
  "current_value": 21.51
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hyperscaler_fcf_capex",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "reuters",
  "source_run_uuid": "d60290d7-5aac-43d3-8f65-c0fedecada44",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 0.06398
}

{
  "current_value": 0.06398
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_curve",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:59:52Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "7612710e-4379-45fb-98d9-96deabc3e9d1",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 2.24
}

{
  "current_value": 2.24
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "jgb_10y",
    "tsy_auction_tail"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "jgb_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T21:54:30Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "2c2e75f4-1952-4625-a434-17c75ad7aed1",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 2.67
}

{
  "current_value": 2.67
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "treasury_10y",
    "bdc_nav_discount"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "treasury_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "ddd1a30f-696a-40d8-a22c-2758df12a9b2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 4.55
}

{
  "current_value": 4.55
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hy_oas"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hy_oas",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-04T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "federalreserve",
  "source_run_uuid": "e42e1bd4-2cd5-417b-8728-f9a33b248b0b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}

{
  "current_value": 2.74
}

{
  "current_value": 2.74
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix_inversion",
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix_inversion",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:15:01Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "5704ac4a-7638-41ff-aec5-6b527df1d5e2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 2.41
}

{
  "current_value": 2.41
}

{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index",
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-05T20:51:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "7d121941-a101-45c8-a118-5477a0d6f5d2",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}

{
  "current_value": 75.1985
}

{
  "current_value": 75.1985
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{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "bbfd3b75-8f1c-4f38-829f-51cfce886636",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:41:07.847811+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:41:07.847811+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Schema fits ProposalPayload with evidence_added and empty new_value; stablecoin is Tier 3 so the CoinGecko, DefiLlama, Circle, Federal Reserve Board, and CoinDesk rows are fresh and sufficient, with numeric/date claims traceable to quoted evidence or operator threshold context. Paper discipline is adequate: the summary uses Layer A scenario-output framing, references hashed section 13 only as a non-attributed operator/framework boundary, and makes no A/B/C arithmetic or prohibited probability claim.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. Schema is valid for evidence_added on trigger stablecoin, cited rows are fresh for a Tier-3 quiet trigger, CoinGecko/DefiLlama/Circle/Federal Reserve/CoinDesk claims match the supplied quotes, and section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing is present without prohibited probability language or unsupported section 13 attribution.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.05,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.482009+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.482009+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, evidence_uuids map to three rows from CRED iQ, Trepp, and Federal Reserve Board, and the numeric/date claims in reasoning_summary are supported by the supplied quotes. Paper discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output and not a probability claim, section 13 and section 13.6 references use hashed anchors, and no state move from 0.65 is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, validation_team is a dict, and evidence_uuids map to the provided rows. Check 2 source sufficiency is met by CRED iQ and Trepp Grade B plus Federal Reserve Grade A, with numeric/date claims matching quotes and fresh published_at dates. Check 3 discipline is adequate: section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, no probability language or prohibited phrase appears, and section 13/13.6 CRE threshold references are used without a state shift.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.65
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{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added_no_value_shift",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.650712+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T21:29:57.650712+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema is valid for amplifier evidence_added, and State Street SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows are fresh, material, and quote-support the numeric/date claims. Section 7.4 Layer A is framed as scenario output, no probability claim is made, section 13/13.6 references are used only to explain no state decrease, and no magnitude move is proposed.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "manual-tick-11d86845-2f58-4146-9780-08103fbc73c8",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added for amplifier concentration, cited SSGA, BlackRock iShares, ICI, and FactSet rows are fresh for a slow-cadence amplifier and quote-support the numeric/date claims. Paper discipline is acceptable because Layer A is framed as scenario output, section 13/13.6 language is used only to explain no state shift, and no prohibited probability phrasing or layer arithmetic appears.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "routine evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T21:04:15.437144+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:57:19.398727+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "da567331d8388472",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "8c4f1dc5d43dfd67",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_state": 0.99,
  "display_value": "CAPE 41.2",
  "raw_metric_value": null
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\ai_cyber_f2e11e1f-50ba-4fb9-bf50-e93858bdea73.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:12.580359+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "daba1329581f01b9",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. Schema fits ProposalPayload, cited Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Microsoft AI Red Team, OpenAI, and CrowdStrike rows are fresh Grade B primary publisher material, and the proposal correctly keeps Layer A as scenario output under section 7.4 with no prior or status move.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "daba1329581f01b9",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass in proposal mode. The evidence_added payload is schema-fit, cites fresh Grade B rows from Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Microsoft AI Red Team, OpenAI, and CrowdStrike, preserves section 7.4 scenario-output framing, and explicitly holds ai_cyber prior/status unchanged because section 13 falsification remains unmet.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.14,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\basis_trade_f2e11e1f-50ba-4fb9-bf50-e93858bdea73.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:12.227874+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ebbe82442f4307b6",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. ProposalPayload schema and enums fit, cited Grade A official rows from NY Fed, Federal Reserve Board, Dallas Fed, and Treasury are fresh and materially update SOFR-IORB, repo operations, H.4.1, structural repo borrowing, and Treasury monitoring inputs. Reasoning stays within section 7.4 Layer A scenario-output framing, makes no state move, and the evidence supports holding basis_trade at quiet with evidence_added.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "ebbe82442f4307b6",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass. The cited Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board, Dallas Fed, and Treasury rows are fresh Grade A official-source evidence, numeric/date claims in the reasoning_summary match raw_payload.quote fields, and the section 7.4 Layer A framing is stated without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "redispatch_run_uuid": "a3bf2284-f735-4afc-b26b-142cf3df94af",
  "source_pending_audit": "C:\\Users\\alexe\\whenwecrash\\agent_swarm\\operator_review\\proposal_pending_audit\\yen_carry_7a78bb78-8cf2-4064-80be-bb67d79796f7.json",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.857057+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-05T20:54:11.457664+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6a6ee05c4e594a51",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: evidence_added is schema-valid with empty new_value, non-empty evidence_uuids, and dict validation_team. Check 2 is satisfied by fresh Reuters and Bank of Japan rows dated 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-05, including BOJ primary FX data and Reuters numeric evidence on bearish yen positioning and reserves. Check 3 passes because section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, section 7.7 independence is preserved, and section 13 and section 13.6 references are used as falsification/bull-case discipline without arithmetic layer mixing.",
      "role": "A",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    },
    {
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "6a6ee05c4e594a51",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "All 5 checks pass in proposal mode. Check 1 schema fits ProposalPayload, Check 2 has fresh Grade A Reuters and Bank of Japan rows from 2026-06-02 through 2026-06-05 with material numeric inputs, and Check 3 section anchors 7.4, 7.7, 13, and 13.6 exist in the hash file with no prohibited probability language or layer arithmetic. Magnitude and coherence pass because the proposal adds evidence while holding current_prior 0.24 and status watching unchanged.",
      "role": "B",
      "rubric_check_failed": null
    }
  ]
}

{
  "current_prior": 0.24,
  "status": "watching"
}

{}

[
  "A",
  "B"
]