Forecast log — whenwecrash.com

2026-06-21 15:57 UTC

hyperscaler_fcf_capex (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hyperscaler_fcf_capex",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-13T17:31:34.182499Z",
  "representative_source_id": "reuters",
  "source_run_uuid": "3a047d61-8435-4f3a-873f-d33bfbd89c22",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 0.161672447
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 0.161672447
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

4610193
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3a047d61-8435-4f3a-873f-d33bfbd89c22; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3a047d61-8435-4f3a-873f-d33bfbd89c22; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-21 15:56 UTC

tsy_auction_tail (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "tsy_auction_tail",
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "tsy_auction_tail",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-18T17:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "f7d23013-e219-488f-b13a-671535c30afa",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -0.5
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -0.5
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

4610256
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run f7d23013-e219-488f-b13a-671535c30afa; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run f7d23013-e219-488f-b13a-671535c30afa; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-21 15:54 UTC

bdc_nav_discount (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "bdc_nav_discount"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "bdc_nav_discount",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-21T15:54:41Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bdcinvestor",
  "source_run_uuid": "5624385c-d72d-4f41-b981-f42a8adf0b13",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -24.0
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -24.0
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

4610357
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 5624385c-d72d-4f41-b981-f42a8adf0b13; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 5624385c-d72d-4f41-b981-f42a8adf0b13; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-21 15:52 UTC

brent_spot (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_spot",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-19T16:59:55Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "c9f688c8-4f2e-474b-8329-2e30c5bd9fd0",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 80.5899963379
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 80.58999633789062
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

4610500
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run c9f688c8-4f2e-474b-8329-2e30c5bd9fd0; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run c9f688c8-4f2e-474b-8329-2e30c5bd9fd0; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:31 UTC

hyperscaler_fcf_capex (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hyperscaler_fcf_capex"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hyperscaler_fcf_capex",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "reuters",
  "source_run_uuid": "d066c178-d904-48c2-9567-f7b3381bba8f",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 0.06398
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 0.16167244701348749
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5295756
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run d066c178-d904-48c2-9567-f7b3381bba8f; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run d066c178-d904-48c2-9567-f7b3381bba8f; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:29 UTC

tsy_auction_tail (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "tsy_auction_tail",
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "tsy_auction_tail",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T17:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "da3ca6fe-901a-45e3-9384-4500cb37636e",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.2
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -0.1
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5295860
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run da3ca6fe-901a-45e3-9384-4500cb37636e; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run da3ca6fe-901a-45e3-9384-4500cb37636e; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:28 UTC

bdc_nav_discount (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "bdc_nav_discount",
    "jgb_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "bdc_nav_discount",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-13T17:28:31Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bdcinvestor",
  "source_run_uuid": "2a52dd94-f068-46c5-a1ac-164c7ca152eb",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5295921
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 2a52dd94-f068-46c5-a1ac-164c7ca152eb; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 2a52dd94-f068-46c5-a1ac-164c7ca152eb; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:28 UTC

hy_oas (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hy_oas",
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hy_oas",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T20:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "federalreserve",
  "source_run_uuid": "827c2e0b-780e-4011-9d93-9e9905159f90",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.78
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.78
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5295966
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 827c2e0b-780e-4011-9d93-9e9905159f90; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 827c2e0b-780e-4011-9d93-9e9905159f90; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:26 UTC

vix_inversion (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix_inversion",
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix_inversion",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-12T20:15:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "9cbe5233-360e-4666-9061-0a03db36c3f3",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -0.42
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -0.42
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5296038
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 9cbe5233-360e-4666-9061-0a03db36c3f3; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 9cbe5233-360e-4666-9061-0a03db36c3f3; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:26 UTC

move_index (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "move_index",
    "vix"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "move_index",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-12T20:30:15Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 2
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 69.3565
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 69.3565
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5296082
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36cd7f81-4756-423c-943d-5ea62991eaac; 2 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-13 17:25 UTC

yen_carry (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

status_change

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T17:25:14.187042+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T17:25:14.187030+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.27,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "status": "watching"
}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5296136
Bank of Japan via fred Grade A registry: FRED Polymarket via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Japan Ministry of Finance via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank of Japan via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank for International Settlements via fred Grade A registry: FRED Bank for International Settlements via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BOJ June schedule evidence from Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-06-12, shows June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy and June 24 Summary of Opinions for…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. BOJ June schedule evidence from Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-06-12, shows June 16 Statement on Monetary Policy and June 24 Summary of Opinions for the meeting held on June 15, 16, while Polymarket, published_at 2026-06-13, shows "25 bps increase" at 99% and Wall Street Journal, published_at 2026-06-12, says the BOJ is widely expected to raise interest rates to 1% during the June 2026 policy-decision window. Japan Ministry of Finance, published_at 2026-05-29, reports JPY 11,734.9billion in foreign exchange intervention operations for April 28, 2026 through May 27, 2026, and Bank of Japan, published_at 2026-04-28, shows a 6-3 majority vote to keep the call rate around 0.75 percent with dissenters proposing around 1.0 percent. BIS, published_at 2026-05-01, states that during carry trade periods a 25 basis point monetary policy surprise produces an almost 10% move in the Japanese yen and confirms significant unwinding of short futures on monetary tightening shock days. Framework section 13 falsification is not met on the evidence set: there is no confirmed pre-run BOJ unexpected hike, no confirmed implied-vol criterion breach, and no confirmed carry-catalyst Nikkei shock; section 13.6 condition d is also not met because the cited BOJ and market evidence point to continued normalization pressure, not a pause or slowed normalization. Status watching remains warranted: the carry trigger is not confirmed through the material unwind threshold, but official intervention, imminent BOJ decision timing, and cited carry-deleveraging mechanics place the lane close enough to liquidation risk to preserve a watch state.
2026-06-13 15:58 UTC

rates_fiscal (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:58:03.784729+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:58:03.784715+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "watching"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5301367
Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates via fred Grade A registry: FRED BLS CPI Release via fred Grade A registry: FRED TreasuryDirect Auction Results via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes via fred Grade A registry: FRED

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Federal Reserve H.15 (Grade A, 2026-06-12) showed effective fed funds at 3.62, the 10-year Treasury at 4.45, the 30-year Treasury at 4.95, and the 5-y…

Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Federal Reserve H.15 (Grade A, 2026-06-12) showed effective fed funds at 3.62, the 10-year Treasury at 4.45, the 30-year Treasury at 4.95, and the 5-year TIPS real yield at 1.78, updating the fast-cadence rates monitor without crossing the policy-rate branch. BLS CPI Release (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the all-items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May after 3.8 percent for April, so inflation evidence remains elevated but does not establish a two-consecutive-quarterly CPI breach. TreasuryDirect (Grade A, 2026-06-10) showed the reopened 9-Year 11-Month Note at a 4.538% high yield and 2.57 bid-to-cover ratio, but the official result does not report auction-tail stress. Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes (Grade A, 2026-05-20) kept the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and recorded several officials resisting easing-bias language, supporting continued watching status rather than a prior or status raise. Falsification per section 13 is mixed: CPI normalization is not established, auction-stress normalization is not established, MOVE normalization is not established from this row set, and Fed policy headroom is supported by the H.15 evidence; evidence_added is the correct action with current_prior and status unchanged.
2026-06-13 15:57 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:57:26.979236+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:57:26.979215+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5-medium",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5301403
SIFMA via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Board via federalreserve Grade A Breckinridge Capital Advisors via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Apollo Academy via apollo_academy Grade B registry: Apollo Academy (Slok)

Layer A scenario output. SIFMA reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, which is the cleanest current scheduled update for the corporate IG supply leg. Breckinridge…

Layer A scenario output. SIFMA reports corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y, which is the cleanest current scheduled update for the corporate IG supply leg. Breckinridge reports gross IG supply was $721 billion in 1Q26, up 12-percent y/y, while Apollo Academy says total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers. The Federal Reserve May 2026 new-security-issues table corroborates elevated corporate bond flow with April 2026 bonds at 236,187 million dollars. Section 13 falsification criteria are restated qualitatively here: total IG supply, MOVE stress persistence, SOMA drawdown versus refunding need, and single-tranche hyperscaler issuance remain the relevant checks, but this evidence set supports evidence accumulation rather than a state shift.
2026-06-13 15:22 UTC

concentration (amplifier)

2 of expected 4 validators accepted; 2 missing.
change_type

status_change

consensus_rule_met

3_of_4_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "3_of_4_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": true,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T15:22:39.229473Z",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T15:20:33.372304Z",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_state": null
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_state": 0.62,
  "display_value": "SPY Information Technology at 37.42% as of Jun 11 2026; ETFGI reports $78.62 billion May equity ETF inflow; no active flow amplification observed",
  "raw_metric_unit": "percent Information Technology weight in SPY",
  "raw_metric_value": 37.42
}
```
expected_quorum

3_of_4

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

2

final_rule

3_of_4_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5303491
State Street Global Advisors via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global BlackRock iShares via sp_global Grade A registry: S&P Global ETFGI LLP via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Mace News via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Goldman Sachs via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg

State Street Global Advisors, Grade A, reports SPY fund top holdings as of Jun 11 2026 led by NVIDIA at 7.84%, Apple at 6.83%, Microsoft at 4.56%, Amazon at 3.71%, Alphabet Class A at 3.30%, Broadcom …

State Street Global Advisors, Grade A, reports SPY fund top holdings as of Jun 11 2026 led by NVIDIA at 7.84%, Apple at 6.83%, Microsoft at 4.56%, Amazon at 3.71%, Alphabet Class A at 3.30%, Broadcom at 2.88%, Alphabet Class C at 2.65%, Meta at 1.96%, Tesla at 1.77%, and Micron at 1.76%; it also reports Information Technology at 37.42%. BlackRock iShares, Grade A, corroborates the sector concentration signal with IVV Information Technology at 37.16% of market value as of Jun 09 2026. ETFGI LLP, Grade B, reports $189.01 billion of US ETF net inflows in May, $837.35 billion year-to-date net inflows, and $78.62 billion of equity ETF net inflows over the month, so the current flow evidence is inflow-dominated rather than an observed redemption cascade. Mace News carrying BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey data, Grade B via secondary-cited primary treatment, reports US equities at net 20% overweight and the crowded-trade ranking at Long global semiconductors 73% versus Long Magnificent 7 14%, while Goldman Sachs, Grade B, reports semiconductor profit-taking and rising ETF macro-product hedges rather than a confirmed forced deleveraging event. Layer A scenario output with section 7.7 layer independence: structural index concentration remains elevated, but the amplification mechanism is conditional and current evidence favors mechanical weight concentration over active flow amplification. Falsification framework thresholds from section 13 are not confirmed by the fetched evidence; bull-case section 13.6 is also not fully met, so this is a downward current_state reset to 0.62 rather than a quiet-state clearance.
2026-06-13 14:02 UTC

basis_trade (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5.3-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T14:02:04.698058+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T13:59:40.727259+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "anthropic",
      "model": "sonnet",
      "prompt_hash": "65ee55b9f9a34568452c6b4a526cf168dfbc05a70e5fa9752e7e4764e0b2c8a3",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "5b22cde1d2262af772868e305d6abd6528a79476e12b5f1075613037fe0f5dbe",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.12,
  "status": "quiet"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5308326
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Bank of New York via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED Federal Reserve Board via fred Grade A registry: FRED U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR

Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations quote operationDate 2026-06-12 with totalAmtSubmitted: 0 and totalAmtAccepted: 0 in both overnight full-allotment repo windows, so the cited repo row d…

Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations quote operationDate 2026-06-12 with totalAmtSubmitted: 0 and totalAmtAccepted: 0 in both overnight full-allotment repo windows, so the cited repo row does not show an SRF utilization spike. Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR quotes effectiveDate: 2026-06-11 and percentRate: 3.60, while Federal Reserve Board PRATES quotes Value: 3.65, ForDate: 06/11/2026, and LastUpdated: 06/10/2026; evaluated against the entity threshold_definition SOFR-IORB > 25 bps, these comparator quotes do not require a state-change claim. Federal Reserve H.4.1 quotes Release Date: June 11, 2026, Wednesday Jun 10, 2026, Repurchase agreements 6 5, Reverse repurchase agreements 12 317,298, and Other deposits held by depository institutions 3,111,454, updating repo-plumbing inputs without a separate SRF utilization figure in the fetched release. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission row quotes Release No. 34-105619, File No. SR-ICC-2026-005, June 5, 2026, and an ICE Clear Credit LLC Treasury Clearing Service documentation filing, which is implementation evidence rather than a CCP clearing-rule milestone delay. Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Falsification criteria per section 13 remain the relevant raise tests: MOVE above 130 for five or more sessions, SRF utilization spike, or CCP clearing-rule milestone delayed past the Dec. 31, 2026 / June 30, 2027 framework dates; this is evidence accumulation only, with current_prior 0.12 and status quiet unchanged.
2026-06-13 13:07 UTC

private_credit (trigger)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team
```
{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5-codex",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "pp",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-13T13:07:06.891304+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-13T13:07:06.891304+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_prior": 0.25,
  "status": "active"
}
```
new_value
```
{}
```
expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters
```
[
  "A",
  "B"
]
```
accepted_voters_count

2

missing_voters_count

1

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5311623
Wall Street Journal via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg Financial Times via bloomberg Grade A registry: Bloomberg HPS Corporate Lending Fund Schedule TO-I via sec_edgar Grade A registry: SEC EDGAR Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B Alternative Credit Investor via alternative_credit_investor Grade B

Wall Street Journal (2026-06-13, Grade B) adds a fresh HLEND stress point: investors requested 13.3% of shares in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.3%, and BlackRock will repurchase only 5%; the s…

Wall Street Journal (2026-06-13, Grade B) adds a fresh HLEND stress point: investors requested 13.3% of shares in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.3%, and BlackRock will repurchase only 5%; the same quote also names BCRED at 10% and Cliffwater at 17% for its $31 billion fund. Financial Times (2026-06-12, Grade B) separately reports BlackRock's $13bn HPS Corporate Lending Fund honoured less than 40% of redemption requests, while SEC EDGAR (2026-05-11, Grade A) shows the underlying HPS tender offer was capped at 25,076,907 shares, approximately 5% of shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026. Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-03, Grade B) reports Moody's Ratings moved Blackstone Secured Lending Fund and Golub Capital BDC from stable to negative, while Alternative Credit Investor (2026-06-05, Grade B) adds a Moody's Analytics counterfactor that loan marks may overstate BDC credit deterioration. The trigger is already active and at p_max, so no further prior or status move is available; this is Layer A scenario output per section 7.4. Section 13.6 bull-case conditions remain unmet because the fresh evidence continues to show redemption caps and negative outlook actions rather than sustained normalization.
2026-06-12 12:00 UTC

bdc_nav_discount (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "bdc_nav_discount"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "bdc_nav_discount",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-12T12:00:38Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bdcinvestor",
  "source_run_uuid": "bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": -22.0
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5402009
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run bfd2e9c6-7545-4596-b04d-6adfec4cbf99; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.

2026-06-11 18:18 UTC

ig_supply (amplifier)

2 of expected 3 validators accepted; 1 missing.

change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

2_of_3_within_tolerance

validation_team

{
  "consensus_rule_applied": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "consensus_rule_recorded_as": "2_of_3_within_tolerance",
  "high_stakes": false,
  "parameter_file_hash_at_proposal": "4925d1603ccd45bd",
  "specialist_model": "gpt-5",
  "step": 1,
  "tolerance_band": {
    "basis": "evidence_added",
    "max_observed_gap": 0
  },
  "validation_completed_at": "2026-06-11T20:19:02+00:00",
  "validation_started_at": "2026-06-11T20:19:02+00:00",
  "voters": [
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass: ProposalPayload schema fits evidence_added with empty new_value, entity_type amplifier is allowed, and evidence_uuids are present. Check 2 quote-fidelity and freshness pass against Federal Reserve H.15, U.S. Treasury, and SIFMA primary rows; the numeric and date claims in reasoning_summary are literally supported. Check 3 paper discipline passes because section 7.4 is framed as scenario output, not probability, section 13 is treated only as audit criteria, and no prohibited phrase or layer arithmetic appears.",
      "role": "A"
    },
    {
      "accepted_value": null,
      "decision": "accept",
      "family": "openai",
      "model": "gpt-5.5",
      "prompt_hash": "validator_prompt_runtime",
      "raw_evidence_seen": true,
      "reasoning": "Checks 1-5 pass for proposal mode. Check 2 is satisfied by three cited ig_supply rows from Federal Reserve H.15, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and SIFMA, with numeric/date claims matching the raw quotes and current scheduled official releases for this slow-cadence amplifier. Check 3 passes because the reasoning uses section 7.4 scenario-output framing, avoids probability language and layer arithmetic, and treats section 13 criteria as audit checks only.",
      "role": "B"
    }
  ]
}

old_value

{}

new_value

{}

expected_quorum

2_of_3

actual_voters

[
  "A",
  "B"
]

accepted_voters_count

missing_voters_count

final_rule

2_of_3_within_tolerance

stale_age_seconds

5465726

Federal Reserve H.15 via fred Grade A registry: FRED U.S. Department of the Treasury via treasury Grade A registry: U.S. Treasury SIFMA via sifma Grade A registry: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association

Layer A scenario output under section 7.4, not a probability claim. The SIFMA row states: Issuance (through May) $1,226.8 billion, +21.1% Y/Y; Trading (through May) $69.6 billion ADV, +13.1% Y/Y; Outstanding (as of 4Q25) $11.5 trillion, +3.5% Y/Y. The Federal Reserve H.15 row states: Release date: June 10, 2026; Jun 9 Treasury constant maturities: 10-year 4.53; 20-year 5.02; 30-year 5.01. The U.S. Department of the Treasury row states that the table presents actual auction sizes for the February to April 2026 quarter and anticipated auction sizes for the May to July 2026 quarter, and that seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter will be addressed through changes in regular bill auction sizes and/or CMBs. Section 13 falsification criteria remain audit checks only; this evidence_added proposal does not assert that any criterion was met or not met beyond what is directly observable in the cited quotes.

2026-06-11 17:52 UTC

brent_curve (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_curve"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_curve",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:42:34Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.31
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.31
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5467280
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run cac488bb-2474-487a-94da-ed8e310cd087; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:47 UTC

tsy_auction_tail (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "tsy_auction_tail"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "tsy_auction_tail",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:03:50Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.2
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.2
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5467585
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 36240364-29ba-4b84-86eb-162cc86c4e35; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:42 UTC

jgb_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "jgb_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "jgb_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:31:08Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.681
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.681
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5467911
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run b76f2580-b6f7-44b6-a959-c0ae7612808a; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:41 UTC

treasury_10y (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "treasury_10y"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "treasury_10y",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T19:30:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "treasury",
  "source_run_uuid": "1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.55
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 4.55
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5467978
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 1627fa94-a232-4ad6-848f-7c10ac9b856b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:38 UTC

hy_oas (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "hy_oas"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "hy_oas",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-10T20:00:00Z",
  "representative_source_id": "federalreserve",
  "source_run_uuid": "eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.8
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 2.8
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5468140
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run eb95dc03-5adb-42ae-bbce-33bba17c49c3; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:36 UTC

brent_spot (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "brent_spot"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "brent_spot",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:26:03Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.87
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 92.87
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5468232
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 3c7fbc44-5ef1-4f31-82ad-05b7917fd46b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.
2026-06-11 17:36 UTC

vix_inversion (indicator)

deterministic_threshold
change_type

evidence_added

consensus_rule_met

deterministic_threshold

validation_team
```
{
  "indicator_harvest_finalizer": true,
  "indicator_ids": [
    "vix_inversion"
  ],
  "representative_indicator_id": "vix_inversion",
  "representative_observed_at": "2026-06-11T17:20:16Z",
  "representative_source_id": "bloomberg",
  "source_run_uuid": "88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b",
  "successful_indicator_posts": 1
}
```
old_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.82
}
```
new_value
```
{
  "current_value": 1.82
}
```
expected_quorum

deterministic

final_rule

deterministic_threshold

stale_age_seconds

5468289
Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the C…

Indicator harvest batch finalized by indicator-harvest-only runner for run 88317233-600b-4de3-9f1d-831dc81c056b; 1 indicator value(s) posted. This records fresh monitoring evidence and refreshes the CCI snapshot without changing trigger or amplifier state.