The 2026-06-08 position is 63, severe. This is not a new regime call; it is the same loaded configuration with a post-publication yen-carry nudge. Hormuz remains the match, and the yen carry lane now adds more pressure without crossing its unwind trigger. Trigger contribution is 45.3125 and amplifier contribution is 17.4.
What moved on 2026-06-08
- Hormuz remains the load-bearing trigger. The 2026-06-08 Hormuz research held prior at 0.45 and status active. Reuters and Associated Press evidence kept the oil-shock channel engaged; no de-loading state change was accepted.
- Yen carry moved after the first brief publish. The accepted 2026-06-08 yen-carry proposal raised prior from 0.24 to 0.27 while status stayed watching. Reuters reported bearish yen positions above $10 billion, and Bank of Japan FX data put USD/JPY at 160.22-23 at 17:00 JST with central rate 160.35. The threshold remains JPY < 140 in fewer than 5 sessions, so this is pressure, not the unwind trigger.
- Taiwan remains pressure, not kinetic confirmation. Taiwan MND evidence held prior at 0.09 and status quiet; the kinetic cross-strait incident threshold is not crossed.
Current configuration
The severe reading is a stacked-risk configuration. Iran/Hormuz contributes 14.0625 points, AI capex 9.375, private credit 5.2083, yen carry 5.625, rates/fiscal 3.75, Taiwan 2.8125, basis trade 2.5, AI cyber 1.4583, and stablecoin 0.5208. The amplifier side remains stretched: equity valuation and concentration are 0.99, CRE debt wall is 0.65, IG supply is 0.55, and Tether/T-bills is 0.30.
Crash path to watch
The plausible path is still oil -> spreads -> CRE, with yen carry now adding a second pressure line. The dangerous version is not one datapoint; it is simultaneity: Hormuz keeps oil stress alive, credit spreads stop absorbing it, CRE refinancing stress accelerates, and long-end rates or funding pressure prevent an easy relief valve.
What would change my view
The risk view would de-load if Hormuz traffic and oil stress normalize durably, credit spreads and private-credit marks cool, CRE refinancing stress stops widening, and yen carry pressure eases without a disorderly move. Section 13 falsification criteria for yen carry remain unmet: no BOJ hike above 25bp, no USD/JPY 1-year implied volatility above 14%, and no single-day Nikkei decline above 5% on a carry catalyst is cited in the accepted 2026-06-08 proposal.
Methodology
The CCI is computed by formula link. Parameter hash at publication: 4925d1603ccd45bd. CCI at publication: 63 (severe). Layer A scenario outputs remain scenario output, conditional on the frozen parameter set, and section 7.7 keeps framework layers independent. Not a probability. Not a forecast. Not investment advice.