June 2026 sits at 62. Oil is active; yen is policy-sensitive.

The 2026-06-03 publication snapshot reads 62, step severe, under parameter hash 4925d1603ccd45bd. The largest live weight remains Oil & Iran / Hormuz at prior 0.45 and status active; the material movement inside the returned 24-hour log is yen carry moving from 0.21 to 0.24 on 2026-06-02 UTC.

What moved on 2026-06-03

Oil & Iran / Hormuz evidence was refreshed; prior held at 0.45 and status held active. Reuters reported 2026-06-03 oil-market stress while IEA's May report kept Hormuz-flow recovery conditional on a deal and gradual resumption. Source: Reuters (source_id: reuters, registry grade A); IEA (source_id: iea, registry grade A).
Treasury basis evidence was refreshed; prior held at 0.12 and status held quiet. Federal Reserve Bank of New York data showed SOFR at 3.65 for 2026-06-01 and small full-allotment repo operations on 2026-06-02, while Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 plumbing data did not show repo stress. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (source_id: fred, registry grade A); Federal Reserve Board (source_id: fred, registry grade A).
Taiwan evidence was refreshed; prior held at 0.09 and status held quiet. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense evidence logged PLA and maritime activity without a kinetic cross-strait incident, while Reuters evidence added carrier and coast-guard context. Source: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (source_id: taiwan_mnd, registry grade A); Reuters (source_id: reuters, registry grade A).
AI cyber prior moved from 0.12 to 0.14 on 2026-06-02 UTC; status held quiet. The evidence set added official AI-enabled defense coordination and private-sector AI-risk framing, but no confirmed systemic outage. Source: The White House (source_id: cisa, registry grade A); Anthropic (source_id: bloomberg, registry grade A).
Private credit evidence was refreshed; prior held at 0.25 and status held active. Reuters reported aggregate unrealised BDC losses at 2.35% of NAV in Q1 2026, while Financial Stability Board evidence kept liquidity mismatch under official monitoring. Source: Reuters (source_id: reuters, registry grade A); Financial Stability Board (source_id: bis, registry grade A).
Yen carry prior moved from 0.21 to 0.24 on 2026-06-02 UTC; status held watching. Reuters reported net short yen positions at 114,667 contracts and Japan intervention spending, while Bank of Japan data showed USD/JPY at 159.68-69 at 17:00 JST. Source: Reuters (source_id: reuters, registry grade A); Bank of Japan (source_id: boj, registry grade A).
Valuation and concentration evidence kept both amplifiers at 0.99. Multpl.com reported Shiller CAPE at 42.78 and State Street SSGA evidence kept index concentration loaded. Source: Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) (source_id: multpl, registry grade A); State Street SSGA (source_id: sp_global, registry grade A).
CRE debt wall and IG supply evidence kept the slow amplifiers loaded but below the operator-policy ceiling. Trepp reported May CMBS delinquency at 7.55%, and SIFMA reported corporate bond issuance through May at $1,226.8 billion. Source: Trepp (source_id: bloomberg, registry grade A); SIFMA (source_id: sifma, registry grade A).

What this configuration means

This is a severe configuration, not an outcome claim. Section 11 language applies: severity is conditional on the configuration remaining loaded and on trigger evidence continuing to validate the state table. The CCI split is 44.6875 trigger component and 17.4 amplifier component, with the highest trigger contribution still coming from Oil & Iran / Hormuz.

The nearest active loop is L2, Oil -> spreads -> CRE, because iran_hormuz maps to L2 with ig_supply and cre_debt_wall as the attached amplifiers. L3 is the nearest rising policy-sensitive loop because yen_carry maps to L3 and the 2026-06-02 prior change raised it while status remained watching. L5 remains relevant because private_credit is active, but the returned log shows evidence accumulation rather than a new state move.

Layer references should stay separated. Section 7.4 and section 7.5 are scenario-output anchors, not probability claims; section 7.7 keeps the layers independent. The valuation backdrop is a Layer C single-episode comparison: the December 1999 anchor is n=1, the only previous time in 145 years the market has been priced like this.

What would change my view

Operator placeholder: conditions that would lower the framework's loaded state are the section 13 falsification criteria and the 5-condition bull-case framework at section 13.6. In this snapshot, the relevant de-load path would require Hormuz reopening and oil normalization, orderly yen adjustment without market dislocation, private-credit stress metrics improving, concentration and valuation retreating together, and credit-supply absorption without spread deterioration.

What is scheduled for 2026-06-04

Morning Taiwan-strait ADIZ cycle release -- 00:00 UTC window
Daily oil-market commentary cycle -- window 09:00-15:00 UTC
Brent crude and curve print -- window 09:00-21:00 UTC
Weekly Fed liquidity release cycle -- 20:30 UTC Thursday cadence
Hyperscaler filing and credit-disclosure cycle -- window 13:00-21:00 UTC

Methodology