On 2026-05-26, the configuration holds at 64. No state changes posted on 2026-05-25 or 2026-05-26.
The Crash Configuration Index reads 64 (severe step) on 2026-05-26, unchanged from the 2026-05-24 snapshot. The forecast log shows zero entries for 2026-05-25 and 2026-05-26; the most recent forecast-log activity is dated 2026-05-24 and consisted entirely of EVIDENCE_ADDED entries with zero prior or status changes. Twelve of thirteen tracked entities received fresh evidence on 2026-05-24; the remaining entity, tether_tbills, was last refreshed on 2026-05-22.
What moved on 2026-05-26
- No prior changes or status changes posted on 2026-05-26. The forecast log is empty for 2026-05-26 and for 2026-05-25; entity priors and amplifier states stand as established by 2026-05-24's evidence ingestion.
- Fresh evidence ingested for iran_hormuz on 2026-05-24; prior held at 0.45 (active). Brent at $104.68 per barrel on 2026-05-22, still above the $95 sustained-threshold prong. Source: Fortune (2026-05-22) (source_id: bloomberg, registry grade B).
- Fresh evidence ingested for ai_capex on 2026-05-24; prior held at 0.30 (rising). Wall Street banks are increasingly trading more credit derivatives to keep doing business with hyperscalers as hyperscalers raise hundreds of billions of dollars for AI investments. Source: Bloomberg (2026-05-23) (source_id: bloomberg, registry grade B).
- Fresh evidence ingested for equity_valuation on 2026-05-24; amplifier held at 0.99. Shiller PE Ratio at 42.04 as of 4:00 PM EDT, Friday, May 22, 2026; long-term mean 17.38; all-time peak 44.19 (Dec 1999). Source: Multpl.com (Robert Shiller data) (2026-05-22) (source_id: multpl, registry grade A).
- Fresh evidence ingested for concentration on 2026-05-24; amplifier held at 0.99. SPY top-10 combined weight at 39.04% on 2026-05-21; Information Technology sector at 37.35%. Source: State Street SSGA (2026-05-21) (source_id: sp_global, registry grade A).
- Fresh evidence ingested for private_credit on 2026-05-24; prior held at 0.25 (active). JPMorgan Chase traded $2 billion of private credit loans year-to-date 2026, more than in all prior years combined. Source: Bloomberg News (2026-05-21) (source_id: bloomberg, registry grade B).
- tether_tbills amplifier held at 0.30; last refresh 2026-05-22. Federal Reserve H.4.1 (week ended May 20, 2026) shows SOMA Bills at 459,607 million face value and reverse repurchase agreements at 342,628 million, consistent with T-bill market depth absorbing reserve-sector demand without observable pricing pressure. Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 (2026-05-21) (source_id: fred, registry grade A).
What this configuration means
Two Tier 1 triggers are loaded as of the 2026-05-24 snapshot: iran_hormuz at prior 0.45 (active) and ai_capex at prior 0.30 (rising). Mapping these to the topology, iran_hormuz sits on L2 (oil shock to IG spreads to CRE refinance distress) and ai_capex sits on L1 (capex to revenue expectations to multiples to capex) and L4 (index flows to top-name concentration to passive bid). L2 is the nearest active loop because the trigger feeding it has crossed into the active status; L1 carries a rising trigger and L4 carries a rising trigger plus two ceiling-loaded amplifiers. private_credit at 0.25 (active) sits on L5 (private-credit reflex), and yen_carry at 0.21 (watching) sits on L3 (carry funding).
Equity valuation and concentration amplifiers both sit at 0.99, the operator policy band ceiling. The 2026-05-26 reading matches the December 1999 configuration (n=1, the only previous time in 145 years the market has been priced like this). This is Layer C single-episode evidence per section 7.3; the layers are independent per section 7.7, and the Layer A factor-copula scenario output and Layer B severity-scenario output must not be arithmetically combined with the Layer C single-episode marker. Severity is conditional on the configuration per section 11.
The next dispatchable signal is the next forecast-log entry. None has arrived on 2026-05-25 or 2026-05-26.
What would change my view
Conditions that would lower the framework's loaded state are the 5-condition bull-case framework at section 13.6 (Iran/Hormuz transit reopening and Brent sustained sub-threshold; private-credit redemption normalization across the BDC sector; concentration-band breach to broader index dispersion; cycle de-loading via a material capex cut from any top-7 hyperscaler; an AI-cyber regression that retreats without a confirmed systemic outage). For material Tier 1 raises, operator review should restate the section 13 falsification criteria explicitly.
What I'm watching on 2026-05-27
- Morning cross-strait ADIZ release cycle -- 00:00 UTC
- Daily oil-market commentary cycle -- window 09:00-15:00 UTC
- Brent crude print -- window 09:00-21:00 UTC
- Hyperscaler 8-K filings cycle -- window 13:00-21:00 UTC
- Weekly liquidity release cycle -- 20:30 UTC Thursday
Methodology
The CCI is computed by the framework formula. Parameter hash: e67620bc794dd338. 2026-05-26 components: published at /api/v1/cci/current. Not a probability. Not a forecast. Not investment advice.