The Crash Configuration Index sits at 63, holding the severe step. Two trigger priors raised today: yen_carry from 0.18 to 0.21 and private_credit from 0.22 to 0.24. No status flipped; no amplifier crossed a band; the configuration is loaded and steady.

What moved today

• Yen carry prior raised from 0.18 to 0.21. Reuters relayed the OECD May 13 outlook stating "interest rates should continue to be raised, given higher inflation expectations, solid nominal wage growth and a closed output gap", with the OECD projecting a 2% BoJ policy rate by end-2027 from 0.75% today. The Bank of Japan May 12 Summary of Opinions records a board member view that "it is quite possible the BOJ will raise interest rates from the next meeting onward"; the April 28 Policy Board recorded a 6-3 majority vote, with two members proposing 1.0 percent. ING Think today: Japan Q1 GDP grew 0.5% QoQ versus 0.4% consensus, maintaining a 50 bp 2026 hike call. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Source: Reuters (registry bucket: reuters, grade B); Bank of Japan (registry bucket: boj, grade A); ING Think (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B).
• Private credit prior raised from 0.22 to 0.24. WealthManagement reports Apollo MFIC non-accrual loans of approximately $167 million in the March quarter versus $48.5 million a year ago, and FS KKR Capital Corp Q1 NAV declined 9.9% as KKR launched a $300 million buyback program. Alternative Credit Investor cites Oaktree noting PIK loans at 91 cents on the dollar and CCC-rated spreads widened by over 300 basis points year-to-date. Benzinga reports Q1 2026 non-listed BDC redemptions of $6.9 billion exceeded fundraising of $4.9 billion -- the first quarter of net outflows in this asset class. Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Source: WealthManagement (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B); Alternative Credit Investor (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B); Benzinga (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B).
• Fresh evidence ingested for iran_hormuz; prior held at 0.45 active. CNBC reports Brent crude fell more than 1% to $110.69 per barrel and WTI ticked 0.41% lower to $108.21 per barrel on Trump's postponement of the planned Iran strike, with the full military threat retained pending a deal. The IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 remains the structural anchor: "cumulative supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels with 14 mb/d shut in". Layer A scenario output, not a probability claim. Source: CNBC (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B); IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 (registry bucket: iea, grade A).
• Fresh evidence ingested for taiwan; prior held at 0.09 quiet. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense reports 13 sorties of PLA aircraft and 5 PLAN ships operating around Taiwan, with 10 of 13 sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, ahead of the May 20 inauguration anniversary. Falsification criteria for a raise were not met. Source: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (registry bucket: reuters, grade A).
• Fresh evidence ingested for stablecoin; prior held at 0.05 quiet. CryptoTimes reports six federal agencies have issued proposed GENIUS Act rules with the Federal Reserve Board the sole holdout; statutory finalization deadline July 18, 2026, effect no later than January 18, 2027. No enforcement action or peg stress observed. Source: CryptoTimes (registry bucket: bloomberg, grade B).
• Fresh evidence for five amplifiers (concentration, cre_debt_wall, equity_valuation, ig_supply, tether_tbills); states held. Evidence accumulation only; no state change in the amplifier stack.

What this configuration means

The severe step holds because the trigger-weighted sum (3.72 of a maximum 6.15) and the amplifier mean state (0.696) both remain elevated. Today's two prior raises sit in two of the framework's feedback loops: yen_carry maps to L3 (BoJ tightening into JPY strength into US risk-asset unwind), and private_credit maps to L5 (redemption into forced sale into mark-down into redemption).

The framework treats today's raises as Layer A scenario output, conditional on the frozen parameter set; they are not a probability claim about the underlying events. Section 7.7 keeps the layers independent. The valuation amplifier sits at the only previous time in 145 years the market has been priced this way -- a structural backdrop that conditions every loop the framework tracks. Today the position is loaded; the configuration did not change; the priors did.

What would change my view

Conditions that would lower the framework's loaded state, per section 13 falsification and section 13.6 bull-case enumeration:

• BoJ communicates a pause or slowed normalization, per section 13.6(d).
• Hormuz partial reopening alongside the section 13.6(c) Brent normalization condition.
• HY CDX, MOVE, VIX, and JPY basis normalizing in tandem, per section 13.6(e).
• BDC sector outlook shifting away from Negative; Fitch Private Credit Default Rate entering a sustained declining trend.
• ODNI/IC language on Taiwan invasion timing remaining unchanged or de-escalating.

This section is operator-owned at publish time.

What I'm watching tomorrow

• Bank of Japan official communications -- window 04:00-08:00 UTC.
• SEC EDGAR for fresh hyperscaler debt filings -- window 13:00-21:00 UTC.
• IEA daily oil market commentary -- window 09:00-15:00 UTC.
• Taiwan Ministry of National Defense morning ADIZ release -- 00:00 UTC.
• Federal Reserve H.4.1 liquidity release -- 20:30 UTC Thursdays.

Methodology

The CCI is computed by [formula link]. Parameter hash: e67620bc794dd338. Today's components: [link to JSON]. Not a probability. Not a forecast. Not investment advice.